NCAA Tournament - Elite 8 Analysis

The Elite 8 starts tonight, so here is my analysis of the teams who have gotten this for and the match ups between each team.

As far as which teams have made it this far, using Ken Pomeroy's Efficiency Stats, here are the overall ranks of each team in the Elite 8 before the NCAA Tournament started:

1. Kansas
2.UCLA
3. Memphis
5. North Carolina
7. Texas
9. Louisville
18. Xavier
33. Davidson

So 6 out of the Top 10 teams overall made it to the Elite 8, not a bad indicator for success.

The other Top 10 teams who did not make the Elite 8 were Wisconsin(4), Duke(6), Georgetown(8), and Stanford(10). Davidson knocked off Wisconsin and Georgetown and Texas knocked off Stanford, so 3 of these teams lost to teams that eventually made the Elite 8. Duke is the only Top 10 rated team that lost to a team that did not make the Elite 8, however, they might have been the Top 10 team that was the most flawed because of their lack of an inside presence.

It is no surprise that 4 out of the top 5 rated teams are in the Elite 8.

Now onto the Elite 8 matchups with the updated overall efficiency ratings as well as overall offensive/defensive efficiency ratings:

North Carolina(4) vs Louisville(6): A couple of interesting things to look at here with this matchup. UNC's defense has been improving as their defensive efficiency rating has improved from #28 to #19 overall from their performance against Washington State. They also went from #86 to #70 in Def. Effective FG%.

Their defensive numbers are still a little too low for me to think that this team will win it all but they way they have been playing it is hard for me to see them getting knocked off. It is possible that they have had good matchups so far and Louisville definitely posts more of a threat to them then Arkansas or Washington State did.

Louisville is going to have to play real good D to pull off the "upset" here and their Defensive Efficiency amd Effective FG% suggest they have what it takes to do so. They certainly have enough athletes to keep up with UNC. I think Louisville's D will be solid. In the end, this matchup will come down to the defense of UNC in my mind, if they continue to improve like they have been, then I don't think Louisville will have any chance to win this game. If the UNC defense isn't tight, then I think Louisville can pull off the upset.

Offensive Efficiency - UNC(2), Louisville(34)
Defensive Efficiency - UNC(19), Louisville(2)
Off. Effective FG% - UNC(42), Louisville(50)
Def. Effective FG% - UNC(70), Louisville(7)

Memphis(3) vs Texas(7): Memphis and Texas both looked impressive in Sweet 16 action. Texas has improved their Offensive & Defensive Effective FG% since the Tournment started but their defensive numbers overall are still a little low. Memphis is strong all around and will be a tough opponent for Texas.

The key in this game to me is the guard matchups. Antonio Anderson played great defense on Drew Neitzel last night and I would expect him to be guarding AJ Abrams in this matchup. If Anderson can control AJ Abrams' 3-Point shooting, then Texas will have trouble keeping up with Memphis in this game.

I think that Rose and Douglas-Roberts are too big, strong, and quick for the Texas guards and will be able to penetrate into the paint against a small Texas team. Once in the paint, they will be able to either score or dish off to the Memphis big men.

Another thing to remember, if Memphis is living in the paint against Texas, there could be alot of opportunity for fouls to be called against Texas and their team is not very deep. In fact, their bench plays the least amount of minutes of ANY team in the whole NCAA. However, the flip side to this is that if Memphis goes to the line alot, they could shoot a bad percentage. I think if Memphis can shoot free throws like it did last night (26 of 35) then it will be tough for Texas to keep up.

Offensive Efficiency - Memphis(6), Texas(3)
Defensive Efficiency - Memphis(5), Texas(32)
Off. Effective FG% - Memphis(45), Texas(99)
Def. Effective FG% - Memphis(4), Texas(21)

UCLA(2) vs Xavier(15): The game between these two teams really intrigues me. In my heart, I believe that Xavier will pull of the upset here but UCLA has shown an uncanny knack(refs) to pull out close games, which makes me wonder if they are a team of destiny.

Statistically, these teams are pretty equal. Xavier is probably better offensively because of the three headed trio of Josh Duncan, Derrick Brown, and BJ Raymond: Josh Duncan(60.9%) and Derrick Brown(61.3%) are both over 60% in Offensive Effective FG%, and BJ Raymond(59.8%) is not far behind. As you can see, Xavier is a free efficient team on offense rating 10 in Overall Efficiency and 11 in Offensive Effective FG%. UCLA's Overall Defensive Efficiency is strong at # 7 but their Defensive Effective FG% is only # 43, so Xavier may be able to exploit UCLA on the defensive end a little bit.

Of course UCLA counters with Kevin Love, who is a beast on the boards and pretty efficient himself on the offensive end with a 59.0% Off. Effective FG%. I expect Love to have his usual strong game, unless he gets in foul trouble.

I think the key for UCLA will be the Darren Collison, Josh Shipp, Russell Westbrook trio. I think Xavier's offense is too efficient for UCLA to completely shut them down, so at least two of these three are going to have to play strong games for UCLA to win. I think you will see UCLA try to exploit Drew Lavender's lack of height, so whoever he is guarding in this trio will probably look to shoot more often. I would put Stanley Burrell on Collison since he is their best defensive player and let Lavender deal with Westbrook who has been struggling lately.

One last interesting note, UCLA is 8th overall in Defensive Free Throw Rate, which means there are only 7 teams in the whole NCAA who send less players to the free throw line per shot FG attempt than UCLA. This might be the one stat that backs up the allegations of UCLA getting away with fouls not being called.

Offensive Efficiency - UCLA(7), Xavier(10)
Defensive Efficiency - UCLA(3), Xavier(29)
Off. Effective FG% - UCLA(69), Xavier(11)
Def. Effective FG% - UCLA(43), Xavier(41)

Kansas(1) vs Davidson(20): Since the tournament started, Davidson has had one of the biggest jumps in overall efficency climbing from 33 overall to 20. However, I'm not sure they have enough to knock off a balanced Kansas team. Stephen Curry might need another 40 point game for Davidson to pull off an upset here, which he is certainly capable of.

Honestly though, I think Davidson's cinderella run ends here. Kansas has the best group of guards of any team that Davidson has played so far and I think that will make a big difference. Georgetown and Wisconsin didn't really have anyone who could match Curry on the offensive end but Kansas certainly does. They also sport two of the best defensive guards in the country, who both have a knack for getting steals: Mario Chalmers is 10th in the nation in steals (2.4/game)and Russell Robinson is 30th(2.0/game)

I should have made note of this before but Kansas has a couple few players who have an extremely high Off. Effective FG%: Mario Chalmers(63.8%) and Darnell Jackson(63.8%) are the two highest rated players in Off. Effective FG% still in the tournament. Chalmers 63.8% is extremely impressive since he is a guard.

Kansas also ranks in the Top 10 in numerous other categories, such as 3-Point FG%(40.2%), 2-Point FG%(55.3%), and Defensive 2-Point FG%(40.8%) among others.

Offensive Efficiency - Kansas(1), Davidson(15)
Defensive Efficiency - Kansas(4), Davidson(37)
Off. Effective FG% - Kansas(4), Davidson(21)
Def. Effective FG% - Kansas(11), Davidson(144)

Just for the record, I picked Louisville, Kansas, Memphis, and UCLA to reach the Fianl 4 before the tournament started, so I can't go back on those predictions now. After watching the teams play, I would have hard time passing over UNC after the way they have been playing and I think Xavier has a great chance to take out UCLA but I will stick to my original predictions.