NCAA Tournament - Possible Upsets (5 vs 12 & 6 vs 11)

The most common first round upsets are the 5 vs 12 and 6 vs 11. I will break down these matchups going back to 2004 using Overall Efficiency and other factors, mainly Offensive/Defensive Effective FG%.

5 vs 12 Matchups:

Team(Rank)

2007: Butler(25) beat Old Dominion(73), USC(27) beat Arkansas(36), Tennessee(31) beat LB State(136), and Va Tech(39) beat Illinois(33)

Analysis: No upsets last year but a couple of 12 seeds(Arkansas & Illinois) probably shouldn't have been 12 seeds but they both were flawed teams. Illinois was bad on offense and Arkansas had an average offense.

2006: Pitt(12) beat Kent St(75), Washington(13) beat Utah St(72), Nevada(35) lost to Montana(88), Syracuse(51) lost to Texas A&M(25)

Analysis: Only one upset here as Montana knocked off Nevada. Nevada was actually a better team but Montana had a better offense, especially since they were 9 in the country in Effective FG %. That was probably the driving factor in the upset. Also, it is worth nothing that a 5 seed that has an overall efficiency ranking in the Top 15(Pitt & Washington), probably isn't going to lose to a 12 seed.

2005: Villanova(5) beat New Mexico(36), Michigan St(7) beat Old Dominion(72), Alabama(17) lost to Wisc-Milw.(42), and Georgia Tech(21) beat George Washington(46)

Analysis: Two of the 5 seeds(Villanova and Mich St) were Top 10 teams in the country so they were badly underseeded. Both of them ended up losing to eventual champion North Carolina so that is nothing to be ashamed of. The one upset was Wisc.-Milw. beating Alabama. Alabama was a solid team overall that year and the numbers don't really explain why they lost, except that Wisc-Milw. was pretty good at holding opponents to a low effective FG%. So I figured there must be something else going on here and I saw that they had a 9 game winning streak coming into the matchup so they were a hot team.

2004: Illinois(11) beat Murray St(71), Providence(23) lost to Pacific(77), Syracuse(25) beat BYU(39), Florida(26) lost to Manhattan(57);

Analysis: Illinois was ranked too high to lose to a 12 seed but there were 2 upsets this year. Providence fell victim to Pacific who was riding a 15 game win streak coming into this game. Pacific was also better in both offensive and defensive FG %. Manhattan knocked off Florida mainly because Florida had just an average defensive FG % and Manhattan was pretty good in that area. They also had won 19 of their last 21 games.

This Years 5 vs 12 Matchups:

Clemson(13) vs Villanova(51): Clemson ranks in top 15 so they should win here and if that's not enough Villanova is horrible in both offensive and defensive effective FG%

Michigan St(17) vs Temple(65): Mich St has decent effective FG% ratings but Temple is 20 overall in offensive effective FG% and is hot winning it's last 7 games, so look for an upset here.

Drake(24) vs Western Kentucky(64): Drake is really bad in defensive FG% while West. Kentucy is solid in both offensive and defensive FG%. Plus they have won 6 straight games and 17 of 18 overall, look for an upset here too.

Notre Dame(27) vs George Mason(93): These two teams are pretty equal in offensive and defensive FG% so I would think that means this game will be a close one, especially since I think G. Mason will try to slow down the pace. I think the Irish will pull this one out though.

6 vs 11 Matchups:

Team(Rank)

2007: Duke(11) lost to VCU(66), Louisville(12) beat Stanford(53), Notre Dame(20) lost to Winthrop(69), and Vanderbilt(35) beat George Washington(92)

Analysis: Two big upsets here with Duke and ND going down. The Duke upset was surprising because they graded out well overall at 11 but they had lost three straight games coming into the tournament and they were a very slow paced team that year so they may not have been as athletic as a normal Duke team. The Winthrop upset was not as surprising, they were 24 in offensive FG% and had won 18 straight games before upsetting ND and making it 19 straight.

2006: West Virginia(16) beat Southern Illinois(47), Michigan State(33) lost to George Mason(23), Indiana(46) beat San Diego St(56), and Oklahoma(50) lost to Wisc-Milw.(63)

Analysis: George Mason at 23 was actually a better team then Michigan St so it's no surprise they won the game. Oklahoma was probably seeded to high with an overall rank of 50, they probably should have been a 10 or 11 seed themselves. They were basically equal with Wisc-Milw. but Wisc Milw. was a fast paced team while Oklahoma was one of the slowest paced teams, so WM was able to quicken up the pace of the game to beat Oklahoma.

2005: Wisconsin(16) beat Northern Iowa(54), Utah(22) beat UTEP(66), Texas Tech(30) beat UCLA(69), and LSU(38) lost to UAB(51)

Analysis: Only one upset here as LSU lost to UAB. LSU was a slow paced team that was bad on defense and it showed as they gave up 82 points to UAB, who was one of the fastest paced teams that season. So it's no surprise they ran all over LSU.

2004: Wisconsin(5) beat Richmond(40), North Carolina(10) beat Air Force(47), Vanderbilt(24) beat Western Michigan(48) and Boston College(31) beat Utah(41)

Analysis: No upsets here since all four of the 6 seeds were solid teams who were in the top 30 in defensive efficiency.

This years 6 vs 11 Matchups:

Marquette(12) vs Kentucky(61): Marquette has a pretty bad offensive effective FG% but is 25 overall in defensive effective FG%. Kentucky is solid in both areas so this should be a good game but I think since Marquette has an overall 12 ranking they should prevail.

USC(20) vs Kansas State(15): Kansas State is clearly seeded to low, they should have been a 6 or 7 seed. If they win this game it would be hard to call it an upset, in fact the upset will be when USC beats Kansas State. USC ranks at 40 in offensive effective FG% and 13 in defensive effective FG%, while Kansas State ranks pretty low in both.

Purdue(25) vs Baylor(39): These two teams are pretty similar in overall efficiency rank but Purdue has horrible ranking in both offensive and defensive effective FG% while Baylor grades out decent in both areas. I would go with Baylor here in an upset.

Oklahoma(36) vs St Joseph(55): These two teams are opposite of each other, Oklahoma ranks 33 in defensive effective FG% and St Joe's ranks 17 in offensive effective FG%. Oklahoma stinks on the offensive end and St Joe's stink on the defensive end. This should be a close game. I'm going with St Joe's in this one though because I think St Joe's offense will beat out the Oklahoma defense.