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Since we are still a couple days away from the Sweet 16 games being played, I thought I would do an analysis of the teams who have made it this far.
Before the NCAA Tournament started, these were the top 20 teams in overall efficiency and their results so far in the tournament:
1. Kansas - in Sweet 16
2. UCLA - in Sweet 16
3. Memphis - in Sweet 16
4. Wisconsin - in Sweet 16
5. North Carolina - in Sweet 16
6. Duke - lost to # 23 West Virginia
7. Texas - in Sweet 16
8. Georgetown - lost to # 33 Davidson
9. Louisville - in Sweet 16
10. Stanford - in Sweet 16
11. Washington St - in Sweet 16
12. Marquette - lost to # 10 Stanford
13. Clemson - lost to # 51 Villanova
14. Tennessee - in Sweet 16
15. Kansas St. - lost to # 4 Wisconsin
16. Texas A&M - lost to # 2 UCLA
17. Michigan St. - in Sweet 16
18. Xavier - in Sweet 16
19. Indiana - lost to # 40 Arkansas
20. USC - lost to # 15 Kansas State
So as we can see 12 of the top 20 teams are in the Sweet 16 and there are 4 others in the top 20 who lost to other teams also in the top 20. It is likely that these other 4 teams would have made the Sweet 16 if they had not lost to teams that were rated higher than them, so it would seem that overall efficiency is a good indicator of who will make the Sweet 16.
If you used this strategy to pick your bracket, you would have had 12 of the 16 teams right in the Sweet 16. The only teams that were ranked outside the top 20 in overall efficiency to make the Sweet 16 were: West Virginia(23), Davidson(33), Villanova(51), and Western Kentucky(64).
All of these teams finished the season strong so it is no surprise that they were able to carry this over to the tournament and advance to the Sweet 16.
In the case of Western Kentucky, they did not have to play a team ranked in the top 20 or else they probably would not have advanced.
West Virginia was just outside the top 20 at # 23, so it was no surprise that they were able to beat a Duke team that was suspect down low. Also, West Virginia is now ranked in the top 20 after their first two games.
Davidson rode a hot Stephen Curry to knock off Georgetown, this was not something I would have predicted but it was certainly possible. They may have gotten some help from the refs as well.
The biggest upset of all was Villanova(51) knocking off Clemson(13) in the first round. I think this game more than any just shows how inconsistent Clemson was this season. It is also possible that Duke and Clemson had somehow inflated ratings due to the strength rating of the ACC conference which is probably rated too high.
So overall efficiency may be a good indicator of who will advance to the Final 4 and may be a technique you may want to use when picking your bracket next season. Of course there will always be matchups between two top 20 teams but you will have to use your own judgement to pick the winner of those game. There may be a weakness of one of the teams that plays into the hands of another.
So now onto this weeks Sweet 16 matchups with the updated overall efficiency ratings as well as overall offensive/defensive efficiency ratings:
North Carolina(5) vs Washington State(6): These two teams are alot closer in overall efficiency than I would have thought. Washington State has moved up 6 spots since the Tournament started, while UNC has held steady at # 5. Most people are probably expecting a blowout here after UNC's impressive performance so far in the tournament.
Here are a couple reasons why that may not be the case if you look at the ranking below:
Offensive Efficiency - UNC(2), Wash St(13)
Defensive Efficiency - UNC(28), Wash St(7)
Off. Effective FG% - UNC(41), Wash St(20)
Def. Effective FG% - UNC(86), Wash St(41)
If Washington State is able to slow down the game, this one could be much closer than expected.
Louisville(7) vs Tennessee(14): This matchup is pretty equal offensively but favors Louisville greatly on the defensive end of the ball.
Offensive Efficiency - Louisville(35), Tennessee(11)
Defensive Efficiency - Louisville(5), Tennessee(23)
Off. Effective FG% - Louisville(54), Tennessee(57)
Def. Effective FG% - Louisville(7), Tennessee(120)
Kansas(1) vs Villanova(44): This one favors Kansas all around so they would have to pull one of their signature choke jobs to lose here.
Offensive Efficiency - Kansas(1), Villanova(61)
Defensive Efficiency - Kansas(4), Villanova(36)
Off. Effective FG% - Kansas(5), Villanova(182)
Def. Effective FG% - Kansas(13), Villanova(210)
Wisconson(3) vs Davidson(30): Davidson has the edge offensively and Wisconsin had the edge defensively. If Stephen Curry continues his hot shooting this could be a very interesting game.
Offensive Efficiency - Wisconsin(26), Davidson(32)
Defensive Efficiency - Wisconsin(1), Davidson(42)
Off. Effective FG% - Wisconsin(137), Davidson(24)
Def. Effective FG% - Wisconsin(4), Davidson(147)
Memphis(4) vs Michigan State(13): It's amazing to see how high Memphis' defense ranks overall. They have the better rankings overall as well but their free throw shooting is still suspect so they aren't a definite to beat Michigan State who is solid.
Offensive Efficiency - Memphis(9), Michigan State(18)
Defensive Efficiency - Memphis(3), Michigan State(19)
Off. Effective FG% - Memphis(46), Michigan State(62)
Def. Effective FG% - Memphis(5), Michigan State(22)
Texas(10) vs Stanford(11): This should be another close game and a battle of Texas' Guards vs Stanford's big guys down low. Stanford has the advantage on D but they gave up 80 points to a guard oriented Marquette team so you would think Texas would be able to put up some points on them as well. I expect this one to go down to the wire.
Offensive Efficiency - Texas(3), Stanford(21)
Defensive Efficiency - Texas(32), Stanford(9)
Off. Effective FG% - Texas(101), Stanford(154)
Def. Effective FG% - Texas(25), Stanford(8)
UCLA(2) vs Western Kentucky(61): This is the biggest mismatch of all going by the rankings but I haven't been overly impressed with UCLA so far. If Western Kentucky can play good D and hit their jump shots, they may have a chance to stick around in this game or else they will probably get slaughtered.
Offensive Efficiency - UCLA(6), Western Kentucky(62)
Defensive Efficiency - UCLA(2), Western Kentucky(67)
Off. Effective FG% - UCLA(71), Western Kentucky(30)
Def. Effective FG% - UCLA(47), Western Kentucky(48)
Xavier(16) vs West Virginia(19): Another close matchup which is probably too close to call. Joe Alexander vs Josh Duncan should be a treat to watch. Xavier has a big edge in Offensive Effective FG%. Josh Duncan(60.9%) and Derrick Brown(61.3%) are both over 60% in Offensive Effective FG%, and BJ Raymond(59.8%) is not far behind. Statistically, I give a slight edge to Xavier but I think this game will swing either way based on the emotion of each team.
Offensive Efficiency - Xavier(14), West Virginia(24)
Defensive Efficiency - Xavier(26), West Virginia(22)
Off. Effective FG% - Xavier(11), West Virginia(102)
Def. Effective FG% - Xavier(44), West Virginia(70)
Before the NCAA Tournament started, these were the top 20 teams in overall efficiency and their results so far in the tournament:
1. Kansas - in Sweet 16
2. UCLA - in Sweet 16
3. Memphis - in Sweet 16
4. Wisconsin - in Sweet 16
5. North Carolina - in Sweet 16
6. Duke - lost to # 23 West Virginia
7. Texas - in Sweet 16
8. Georgetown - lost to # 33 Davidson
9. Louisville - in Sweet 16
10. Stanford - in Sweet 16
11. Washington St - in Sweet 16
12. Marquette - lost to # 10 Stanford
13. Clemson - lost to # 51 Villanova
14. Tennessee - in Sweet 16
15. Kansas St. - lost to # 4 Wisconsin
16. Texas A&M - lost to # 2 UCLA
17. Michigan St. - in Sweet 16
18. Xavier - in Sweet 16
19. Indiana - lost to # 40 Arkansas
20. USC - lost to # 15 Kansas State
So as we can see 12 of the top 20 teams are in the Sweet 16 and there are 4 others in the top 20 who lost to other teams also in the top 20. It is likely that these other 4 teams would have made the Sweet 16 if they had not lost to teams that were rated higher than them, so it would seem that overall efficiency is a good indicator of who will make the Sweet 16.
If you used this strategy to pick your bracket, you would have had 12 of the 16 teams right in the Sweet 16. The only teams that were ranked outside the top 20 in overall efficiency to make the Sweet 16 were: West Virginia(23), Davidson(33), Villanova(51), and Western Kentucky(64).
All of these teams finished the season strong so it is no surprise that they were able to carry this over to the tournament and advance to the Sweet 16.
In the case of Western Kentucky, they did not have to play a team ranked in the top 20 or else they probably would not have advanced.
West Virginia was just outside the top 20 at # 23, so it was no surprise that they were able to beat a Duke team that was suspect down low. Also, West Virginia is now ranked in the top 20 after their first two games.
Davidson rode a hot Stephen Curry to knock off Georgetown, this was not something I would have predicted but it was certainly possible. They may have gotten some help from the refs as well.
The biggest upset of all was Villanova(51) knocking off Clemson(13) in the first round. I think this game more than any just shows how inconsistent Clemson was this season. It is also possible that Duke and Clemson had somehow inflated ratings due to the strength rating of the ACC conference which is probably rated too high.
So overall efficiency may be a good indicator of who will advance to the Final 4 and may be a technique you may want to use when picking your bracket next season. Of course there will always be matchups between two top 20 teams but you will have to use your own judgement to pick the winner of those game. There may be a weakness of one of the teams that plays into the hands of another.
So now onto this weeks Sweet 16 matchups with the updated overall efficiency ratings as well as overall offensive/defensive efficiency ratings:
North Carolina(5) vs Washington State(6): These two teams are alot closer in overall efficiency than I would have thought. Washington State has moved up 6 spots since the Tournament started, while UNC has held steady at # 5. Most people are probably expecting a blowout here after UNC's impressive performance so far in the tournament.
Here are a couple reasons why that may not be the case if you look at the ranking below:
Offensive Efficiency - UNC(2), Wash St(13)
Defensive Efficiency - UNC(28), Wash St(7)
Off. Effective FG% - UNC(41), Wash St(20)
Def. Effective FG% - UNC(86), Wash St(41)
If Washington State is able to slow down the game, this one could be much closer than expected.
Louisville(7) vs Tennessee(14): This matchup is pretty equal offensively but favors Louisville greatly on the defensive end of the ball.
Offensive Efficiency - Louisville(35), Tennessee(11)
Defensive Efficiency - Louisville(5), Tennessee(23)
Off. Effective FG% - Louisville(54), Tennessee(57)
Def. Effective FG% - Louisville(7), Tennessee(120)
Kansas(1) vs Villanova(44): This one favors Kansas all around so they would have to pull one of their signature choke jobs to lose here.
Offensive Efficiency - Kansas(1), Villanova(61)
Defensive Efficiency - Kansas(4), Villanova(36)
Off. Effective FG% - Kansas(5), Villanova(182)
Def. Effective FG% - Kansas(13), Villanova(210)
Wisconson(3) vs Davidson(30): Davidson has the edge offensively and Wisconsin had the edge defensively. If Stephen Curry continues his hot shooting this could be a very interesting game.
Offensive Efficiency - Wisconsin(26), Davidson(32)
Defensive Efficiency - Wisconsin(1), Davidson(42)
Off. Effective FG% - Wisconsin(137), Davidson(24)
Def. Effective FG% - Wisconsin(4), Davidson(147)
Memphis(4) vs Michigan State(13): It's amazing to see how high Memphis' defense ranks overall. They have the better rankings overall as well but their free throw shooting is still suspect so they aren't a definite to beat Michigan State who is solid.
Offensive Efficiency - Memphis(9), Michigan State(18)
Defensive Efficiency - Memphis(3), Michigan State(19)
Off. Effective FG% - Memphis(46), Michigan State(62)
Def. Effective FG% - Memphis(5), Michigan State(22)
Texas(10) vs Stanford(11): This should be another close game and a battle of Texas' Guards vs Stanford's big guys down low. Stanford has the advantage on D but they gave up 80 points to a guard oriented Marquette team so you would think Texas would be able to put up some points on them as well. I expect this one to go down to the wire.
Offensive Efficiency - Texas(3), Stanford(21)
Defensive Efficiency - Texas(32), Stanford(9)
Off. Effective FG% - Texas(101), Stanford(154)
Def. Effective FG% - Texas(25), Stanford(8)
UCLA(2) vs Western Kentucky(61): This is the biggest mismatch of all going by the rankings but I haven't been overly impressed with UCLA so far. If Western Kentucky can play good D and hit their jump shots, they may have a chance to stick around in this game or else they will probably get slaughtered.
Offensive Efficiency - UCLA(6), Western Kentucky(62)
Defensive Efficiency - UCLA(2), Western Kentucky(67)
Off. Effective FG% - UCLA(71), Western Kentucky(30)
Def. Effective FG% - UCLA(47), Western Kentucky(48)
Xavier(16) vs West Virginia(19): Another close matchup which is probably too close to call. Joe Alexander vs Josh Duncan should be a treat to watch. Xavier has a big edge in Offensive Effective FG%. Josh Duncan(60.9%) and Derrick Brown(61.3%) are both over 60% in Offensive Effective FG%, and BJ Raymond(59.8%) is not far behind. Statistically, I give a slight edge to Xavier but I think this game will swing either way based on the emotion of each team.
Offensive Efficiency - Xavier(14), West Virginia(24)
Defensive Efficiency - Xavier(26), West Virginia(22)
Off. Effective FG% - Xavier(11), West Virginia(102)
Def. Effective FG% - Xavier(44), West Virginia(70)
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