NCAA Tournament - Final 4 Analysis

With the Final 4 just a few days away, it's 'Bout That Time I do an analysis of the games on Saturday.

Those who know me well, know that I am loving this Final 4 with all # 1 Seeds. I love to see the best of the best with the most talent go all out because I love to see great athletes perform at their highest level. I love dynasties because I watch sports to see great teams perform together at their highest level.

This Final 4 gives us the best athletes and the best teams and we will get a true champion this year in the NCAA. There are no Cinderellas this year to give one team a free pass to the championship game because let's be serious, every once in a while in a single elimination tournament, the better team slips up and loses.

Well, this year the best teams didn't slip up, they showed up in each game and luckily in UCLA's case the refs showed up in every game too. I kid, I kid.

So if you can't tell by now, I am drooling over these match ups and can't wait for the games to start. Hopefully, it won't disappoint.

Going into the tournament, these were the Top 5 teams in Overall Efficiency:

1. Kansas 2. UCLA 3. Memphis 4. Wisconsin 5. North Carolina

So we have 4 of the top 5 teams in the Final 4 and now UNC has jumped Wisconsin to take over the # 4 spot. This is almost the perfect scenario as it sets up # 1 Kansas vs # 4 UNC and # 2 UCLA vs # 3 Memphis. The basketball God's couldn't have set this up any better.

Now let's breakdown each individual match up:

Kansas(1) vs North Carolina(4): This match up will really put these statistics I have been using to the test because on paper Kansas is statistically better. However, to the naked eye, UNC has been playing really well and it's hard to see anyone beating them at this point.

One interesting thing here is that UNC has passed Kansas in offensive efficiency but their defense is actually getting worse. Louisville shot an effective FG% of 58.2 against UNC last game and posted an offensive efficiency rating of 107. In comparison, Kansas hasn't allowed a team to shoot higher than 45.6% effective FG% or allowed a team to have higher than a 94 offensive efficiency rating in the whole tournament and that was the first game blowout of Portland State.

So clearly we have the ultimate clash of offense versus defense here. I think if Kansas can contain UNC's offense, they will definitely have a good chance to beat UNC. I believe the key will be to stop Ty Lawson from getting out on the break. Kansas will have to be good in transition D and they definitely will have to keep UNC off the offensive boards. I think they will lock down Wayne Ellington in this game and he will be a non-factor. Hansbrough and Green will have to have big games, especially if Lawson can't get the break started.

One final note here: Kansas has by far the highest overall efficiency rating of any team since 2004. Their rating right now is .991 and the closest after that are UNC in 2007(.986) and Duke is 2004(.986). In most cases a .005 difference could mean 5 or 6 spots in the overall rankings. So we will find out how meaningful this statistic is since Kansas has such a high rating you would think they are going to win it all.

Offensive Efficiency - Kansas(2), North Carolina(1)
Defensive Efficiency - Kansas(3), North Carolina(19)
Off. Effective FG% - Kansas(5), North Carolina(42)
Def. Effective FG% - Kansas(11), North Carolina(81)

UCLA(2) vs Memphis(3): Statistically speaking these two teams are pretty equal, except Memphis has a better defensive effective FG%. They hold opponents to the 4th lowest eFG% in the nation at 43.2% compared to UCLA's 46.5%. This game should be a high quality clash of styles with Memphis looking to push the pace and UCLA looking to slow things down a bit.

The most interesting match up in this game to me is Derrick Rose & Chris Douglas-Roberts vs the Darren Collison, Russell Westbrook, Josh Shipp trio. I'm already on record saying that I thought Rose would take over for this Memphis team but Douglas-Roberts has been equally impressive. I think they will be the two best players on the court because they are guards and will handle the ball during more possessions than Kevin Love will.

Believe it or not I think Memphis will attack UCLA with Rose and Douglas-Roberts and try to draw some foul calls on UCLA. How ironic would that be? The bad free throw shooting team will try to attack the team that has been known to get away with fouls, so that they can get to the free thrown line.

However, there is a dirty little secret about Memphis and their free throws. They have actually had a Free Throw Rate of 61% in the tournament, which means for every 10 FG they attempt they are shooting 6 free throws. The national leader in Free Throw Rate was 35.9%, so they are 25% higher than the average. In the first 4 games, they have shot 35 , 32, 35, and 36 free throws and they have hit 93 of them for a 67% clip. If Memphis goes to the line another 30 plus times versus UCLA, they will win this game, at least in my mind they will.

As for Kevin Love, I think his match up with Joey Dorsey is going to be a good one. If Dorsey, who is extremely athletic, can't hold Love in check then I don't think anyone can. This could be a big game for Dorsey to show NBA scouts that he really is the next Ben Wallace.

Offensive Efficiency - UCLA(7), Memphis(4)
Defensive Efficiency - UCLA(2), Memphis(5)
Off. Effective FG% - UCLA(61), Memphis(46)
Def. Effective FG% - UCLA(38), Memphis(4)

In the end, I picked Kansas to beat Memphis in the final from the beginning, so I can't stray from that prediction now. Either way I'm sure the games will be great and that is all that will matter.