Friday, August 8, 2008

Minor League Prospect Watch - David Price

I've been wanting to do a Minor League Prospect Watch feature on David Price since I started doing these features, so I figured I should probably do one now before he gets called up to the major leagues. For those who don't know, David Price was selected #1 in the draft by the Rays last season and he is a left handed pitcher who stands at 6'6" and throws up to 96-97 MHP. He most certainly is going to get called up soon and I would expect him to be able to help the Rays out immediately. The only question is whether the Rays will use him as a starter or a reliever.

Here is how Price has performed as a starter in the minors so far this season:

11 -0 WL/1.87 ERA/1.01 WHIP/92 K/91.2 IP

Pretty impressive stuff from the big lefty. Amazing that this kid actually wanted to quit baseball his freshman year of college and go work at McDonalds. If you don't believe me, it's true according to the Sports Illustrated article that came out on Price last week.

You can check out David Price's player page at Baseball Reference for updated statistics and also his player page over at First Inning for some more stats.

Rankings among top minor league prospects:

Ranking in ScoutingBook (8/8/2008): #1
Ranking in Baseball America 2008: #10
Ranking in Baseball Prospectus: #6
Ranking in MiLB.com Season Preview: #11
Ranking from the Sporting News: #24
Ranking from ESPN: #16

Here is all you need to know about David Price:

The best pitching prospect in the minor leagues, Price dominated this week by striking out 17 of the 46 batters he faced (37 percent). In his 15 starts this season between Montgomery and high Class A Vero Beach, Price has yet to allow more than three runs in one game. No pitcher in the minor leagues can match Price's combination of stuff, polish and athleticism, and there are few big league pitchers who can match Price just on the quality of his pitches. Price's start yesterday of five shutout innings lowered his Double-A ERA to 1.89 in 57 innings, and it's only a matter of time before the big lefty is showing big league hitters what he's capable of in Tampa Bay. (Baseball America)

The Red Sox purged Manny Ramirez and acquired Jason Bay. The Yankees added Xavier Nady, Damaso Marte and Pudge Rodriguez. The Rays? They failed to make a trade before the non-waiver deadline, but their big move is coming. The only question with Class AA left-hander David Price is whether the Rays will use him as a starter or reliever. Either way, their pitching staff will benefit. Price, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2007 amateur draft, is that good. Fourteen starts into his professional career, Price is a combined 10-0 with a 1.97 ERA at Class A and AA. Those numbers seemingly make him a candidate to join the Rays' rotation, but who exactly would Price replace? The Rays rank fourth in the American League in rotation ERA. Their fourth starter, right-hander Edwin Jackson was 4-1 with a 3.93 ERA in his last six starts. Their fifth starter, righty Andy Sonnanstine, leads the team with 11 wins, albeit with a 4.58 ERA. Jackson's power stuff could be devastating in one-inning bursts out of the bullpen. Sonnanstine could provide multiple innings of relief, backing up Price and any other starter who might get knocked out early. The other possibility — the one that would be fairest to Jackson and Sonnanstine — is to use Price out of the bullpen. Not a bad option, either. The Rays' top four relievers — Troy Percival, Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour and lefty J.P. Howell — have been outstanding. An effective Price would add depth, enabling manager Joe Maddon to ease the workloads of his more heavily used veterans. The problem with making Price a reliever is is the opposite of the problem that most teams face with young pitchers. If the Rays want to use Price as a 200-inning starter next season, he needs to pitch more innings, not less. Price, who suffered a strained muscle in his forearm in spring training, has worked only 86 2/3 innings since making his professional debut on May 23. If he finished with say, 130 innings, the Rays would be reluctant to jump him beyond 160 to 170 next season. Of course, that's a question for 2009; the Rays are trying to win in '08, and they can worry about next season when they get there. One way to address the issue then would be to keep Price on restrictions in the minors for two months, then unleash him in the majors for the final four. Whatever the Rays decide, they can't lose. In a perfect world, Price would emerge as the Francisco Liriano of '06 if he started, the Joba Chamberlain of '07 if he relieved. Either would be as big an addition as the Rays could have made at the deadline. (Fox Sports)

David Price seems the picture of contentment, quietly munching on minor league-style clubhouse fare with a table full of teammates, the small television screen playing unnoticed behind him.The Tampa Bay Rays' No. 1 overall draft pick last year has been mowing down Double-A batters with the Montgomery Biscuits and seeming more ready for a promotion with every start. Patient, yes. Content, no. "I want to be there today. That's me,'' said Price, a hard-throwing, 6-foot-6 lefty. "I have no say in that. It's just whenever they feel I'm ready.''Price has been making his case on the mound. He is 6-0 with a 2.08 ERA in eight starts with the Southern League's Biscuits, with 48 strikeouts and 12 walks in 52 innings. That follows a similarly impressive stint with Single-A Vero Beach and pushes the former Vanderbilt All-American to 10-0 as a pro. Nobody is surprised, including Price. The lanky 22-year-old hasn't needed the early success to build confidence. "I expected to be 14-0 right now,'' he said Monday while teammates scooped up nachos nearby in the modest locker room. "That's just the way I've kind of been raised. That's the way I was definitely taught in college: Don't sell yourself short in anything you do. I just expect to win.'' He showed the Rays flashes of brilliance from the start. In his spring training debut in March, facing the New York Yankees, he hit the first batter with a pitch, then struck out Shelley Duncan, Jason Lane and Wilson Betemit with a fastball that reached 99 mph. Biscuits manager Billy Gardner Jr. and teammates have been impressed by Price's demeanor, along with his heater. "He obviously has electric stuff,'' catcher Matt Spring said. "That's what he got drafted for, but his enthusiasm and his energy on the mound is unmatchable. You can have guys that have the good stuff or have guys that have that energy, but to get it in one package is special.'' Gardner said Price hasn't expected any special treatment, arriving on time, following the dress code and meshing well with his teammates. That's not always the case for guys with seven-figure signing bonuses and equally lofty expectations. Gardner has no prediction when Price will be deemed ready for the majors by the AL East-leading Rays, but personally believes he's "very close'' to that point. "He's going to be a No. 1 guy, he's going to be anchoring a staff, down the road,'' Gardner said. "And if he stays healthy, he's going to win a lot of games on the major league level and be an All-Star. He's a very gifted guy.''That's why the Rays gave him a $5.6 million signing bonus and six-year, $11.25 million deal last August. Price was 11-1 with a 2.63 ERA and a Division I-leading 194 strikeouts in his junior season at Vanderbilt, winning the Golden Spikes Award as the nation's best amateur baseball player. Price struck out 10 and allowed one run in seven innings in his latest start Saturday against the West Tenn Diamond Jaxx. Price said he uses his major league ambition as motivation on the mound."That hitter is standing between me and the big leagues. That's how I approach every hitter,'' he said. "I don't treat any hitter any different. It's just they're standing in the way of me trying to make a good living.'' (SI.com)

David Price still doesn't know what it feels like to lose in the Minor Leagues. The 22-year-old left-hander struck out a career-high 10 over seven brilliant innings Saturday as the Montgomery Biscuits routed the West Tenn Diamond Jaxx, 10-1, at Riverwalk Stadium for their 10th straight win. Price (6-0), the top overall pick in the 2007 First-Year Player Draft, has more than lived up to his billing as a future ace. He improved to 10-0 with a 1.97 ERA in 14 starts between Class A Advanced Vero Beach and Montgomery. "[Price] doesn't expect to have bad outings," Biscuits catcher Matt Spring told the Montgomery Advertiser. "He said earlier in the year that he expects a perfect game every start and that's the attitude he shows every time. You can't teach his drive on the mound." The former Vanderbilt University star, who went 11-1 with a 2.63 ERA in 18 games during his final college season, was 4-0 with a 1.82 ERA in the Florida State League before joining the Biscuits in late June. He won his first four starts for Montgomery before a pair of no-decisions but has picked up victories in each of his two two outings. Price allowed one run on four hits -- three singles and Gregory Halman's solo homer in the sixth -- while striking out the side in the third and fifth. He did not walk a batter and eclipsed his previous best of nine strikeouts on May 28 against St. Lucie. With the parent club Rays' staff stocked with young, talented hurlers like Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Matt Garza and Andy Sonnanstine, Price may have to keep winning to crack Tampa Bay's rotation. The Biscuits (25-16) staked Price to a 5-0 lead in the opening frame as Gabriel Martinez and Chris Nowak ripped RBI doubles. Price went to the bullpen to loosen up during the extended inning but didn't mind waiting for his offense. "You'll take those as much as possible," he told the newspaper. "It doesn't matter if it takes an hour and a half [between innings], you'll still take it."(MLB.com)

In a game in which Class A players were supposed to be in awe of a three-time Cy Young Award winner taking the mound, Pedro Martinez was marveling at his opponent. Martinez, who is recovering from a strained left hamstring, participated in a rehab start on Wednesday with the St. Lucie Mets before joining the big league club for his second start of the season on Tuesday. But Martinez came out of the game impressed with the guy pitching for the opposing Vero Beach Devil Rays -- 6-foot-4 lefty David Price. Price outdueled Martinez in a 2-0 win for the Devil Rays, pitching six shutout innings while giving up two hits and striking out nine. "He's amazing, that kid. He's amazing," Martinez said. "That kid is very mature for his time in [the pros], and very talented. "Oh my God. God bless him and keep him healthy." Price was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2007 First-Year Player Draft after notching a Division I-leading 194 strikeouts his final year at Vanderbilt. Price has now recorded nine straight shutout innings as a pro in two starts. On Wednesday, Price retired the first 13 hitters he faced in order. "Wow," Martinez said when he found out Price has only made one previous start since being drafted. "He's a big lefty with superb talent. At that age, I don't think I was like that. He seems far superior." While Martinez allowed two runs in six innings while throwing in the high 80s, the much younger Price was consistently at 96 to 97 mph with his fastball. But Martinez took specific note at how Price approached hitters. "That kid did a hell of a job of throwing first-pitch strikes and pounding the strike zone and jamming hitters," Martinez said. "I was watching that. He did it like a big leaguer. He had such a command. Right there, I'm challenging you. I'm going to do what I gotta do without any fear. That's the kind of talent you love to see." A compliment like that holds a lot of weight when it's coming from a guy who's recorded 209 wins and sports a 2.81 ERA in his career. "That's definitely a big compliment coming from Pedro Martinez. That definitely does mean a lot to me," Price said. "Hopefully I could face him in the big leagues one day." (MLB.com)

After making his much-anticipated debut on May 22, Price came out for his second start and beat a three-time Cy Young Award winner. Martinez praised Price's performance and ability after watching him fan nine guys and allow just two hits. On the season, he is now 2-0, 0.00 in 11 innings with 13 strikeouts, one walk and five hits. At this rate, Price won't be in the Florida State League for long. (Baseball America)

The anniversary of Joba Chamberlain's debut is August 7th and while I'm sure not much will be made of it, outside of the YES Network of course, we could be on the verge of seeing something similar play out in St. Petersburg. The Rays are 51 games from finishing their season and have a lead, although slight, in the division that has prompted some fans to begin magic number counts. A young and talented contending team may add another young piece before too long as last year's top draft pick David Price is making AA look pretty simple, yet Edwin Jackson and Andrew Sonnanstine have done okay as starters, despite Jackson's atrocious K/BB ratio, which prompts a few questions: 1. Why is it always "good young team' and never "good old team"? 2. Should David Price be a reliever or starter upon his promotion to the majors? I decided to see what would be more valuable to the Rays by using Leverage Index and projecting Leveraged Runs Saved. The formula is (5.75 (4.75 for relievers)-ERA)*(IP/9)*(LI). We'll assume that if Price came up today he would throw around 27 innings as a reliever, and make eight starts for 45 innings. A 4.5 ERA for starting, a 3 ERA for reliever, obviously he could do something like become Velociraptor Jesus combined with Mariano Rivera out of the bullpen, but for now we'll assume he's good, not great. We'll place the pLI of his relieving duties at 1.25 - roughly the 7th inning guy on most teams - and the starter pLI around 0.95. (Beyond The Boxscore)

Price sure would fill out a Team USA jersey nicely for the Olympics later this month, but there's a good chance Price will be pitching high-leverage innings for the Rays in Tampa's inaugural push for the playoffs. The current pattern of the Rays' management for developing pitching prospects has been to have them step up one rung at a time, but Price's talent and quickly-established dominance of minor league hitters (not to mention his big league deal) could have him quickly climbing to the top of the ladder. With a lethal slider and a fastball that has topped out at 99 mph this season, Price could be Tampa's lights-out arm coming out of the bullpen should the Rays decide to use him in that capacity. In the meantime, Price is a Double-A starter, and a darn good one. Despite his high-octane stuff, Price has walked just two batters in his last 19 innings, and one of those free passes was intentional. (Baseball America)

Rays left-hander David Price entered Saturday's Grapefruit League game against the Yankees in the seventh inning. Seventeen pitches later, Price left the mound to a standing ovation at Legends Field -- the Spring Training home of the Yankees. Price, the No. 1 pick of the 2007 First-Year Player Draft, reached a 2-2 count against Francisco Cervelli, the first hitter he faced, before drilling him with pitch No. 5. The stylish left-hander then struck out the next three hitters he faced in order, topping out at 99 mph in the process. Price went to 2-2 against Shelley Duncan, the second hitter he faced, before Duncan took a called third strike. "He has an explosive fastball, a sharp, low slider," Duncan said. "He made his pitches. For a young guy, consistency is the biggest issue, and if he can do that all the time, he'll be something special." Price then retired Jason Lane swinging on three pitches before Wilson Betemit struck out swinging to end the inning. Eleven of Price's pitches in his Spring Training debut were strikes. "Not the way I wanted to start my Major League career, hitting the first guy I faced," Price said. "It was just adrenaline out there." But a nice way to finish his outing. "Definitely," Price said. "That's the way I wanted to finish right there. It was a lot of fun." Count Rays manager Joe Maddon among those Price impressed on Saturday. "The ball was really alive late," Maddon said. "The fastball was jumping late. ... These things were down in the zone, around the knees all day long. He broke off a good slider. ... Kind of an impressive beginning." Price smiled when asked if he always made pitching look so easy. "No, but I try to," said Price, explaining that he felt extremely loose. "It's probably the loosest I've felt in a while," Price said. "I haven't pitched competitively in nine months, so I was very happy to keep my emotions intact, because after strike three and I was running off the field, I was tearing up." Veteran Brian Anderson smiled when asked about Price. "If I could take that stuff out there -- Cooperstown, here we come," Anderson said. (MLB.com)

One of the big reasons why Price went No. 1 overall in 2007 was the possibility of seeing him in a big-league rotation sooner rather than later. He hasn't thrown a pro pitch yet, but scouts certainly see him as that kind of guy. He's got tremendous stuff, with a plus fastball, slider and above-average changeup, excellent command of his pitches and the kind of leadership on the mound that screams "future ace." Price has great makeup and is extremely competitive. Add in the fact that this enticing package all comes in a left-hander and it's no wonder he nearly hit the top 10. (MILB.com)

Before the Rays made him the first pick of the 2007 Amateur Draft, David Price had already run up a polished resume, beginning with the 0.43 ERA he posted as a high school senior. The Dodgers drafted him in the 19th round in 2004, but Price chose to attend Vanderbilt on scholarship instead, where he became the immediate anchor to a strong rotation. While his fastball has been clocked at 94mph a few times, he works more in the 90-91 range, relying on a high quality and high-80's slider with a very sharp bite. He has a good changeup, and rather than relying on power, he adds and subtracts with consistent, solid arm action. While he has always been able to throw strikes, Price has always had some command problems within the strike zone, and has been known to tip his changeup by dropping his arm angle. If this flaw sticks while he faces major leaguers -- or even high minor leaguers -- look for some very very long moonshots in Price's future. In the short term, look for Price to be an early darling for a rotation spot in Tampa, though it seems more likely he'll spend the entire year in the minors, as the Rays work to develop his gamesmanship and stamina. If they bring him to the majors early, he's likely to end up as a closer or setup man, rather than the starter he could be with another year or two of development. (Scouting Book)


More: Minor League Prospect Watch

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