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Today is the last day before the real NCAA Tournament games start, so this post will include my final analysis and possible upset picks.
I'll start off with my prediction of who will win it all. As I have said before, Kansas and UCLA are the top two teams in overall efficiency. I have also shown that from 2004-2007 one of the top two teams has won the National Championship. In addition, I have found a strong correlation between who makes the Final Four and effective offensive/defensive FG%.
Upon second look UCLA is not that strong in effective offensive FG% coming in 75th or defensive FG% at 89th, this is despite the fact they are # 5 overall in offensive efficiency and # 4 in defensive efficiency. This raises a serious red flag in my book about UCLA because no team has even made the Final Four in the past four years with effective offensive/defensive ranks that poor, nevermind win it all. Plus, Kevin Love has a sore back and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute is out with a bad ankle for an unknown period of time.
Kansas on the other hand is strong in both ranking # 5 in effective offensive FG% and # 18 in effective defensive FG%. The are also # 1 in offensive efficiency and # 3 defensive efficiency. These numbers fit the profile of a champion much better than UCLA does, so I am leaning towards them as the eventual champions.
Their biggest hurdle is probably going to be Georgetown, which has high rankings in offensive efficiency(16), offensive effective FG%(6), defensive efficiency(8), and defensive effective FG%(2). I would not be surprised to see Georgetown knock off Kansas and if Georgetown was in any of the other 3 regions, I would probably pick them to the Final 4.
Although the trend is for one of the top two teams in overall efficiency to win the championship, this year is an extremely strong year at the top of those rankings. There are two other teams who rank right up there with UCLA in a battle for the second best team: Memphis and Wisconsin. So I have to at least take a look at these two teams.
Memphis has a strong rating of # 4 in defensive effective FG%, but their offensive effective FG% is only # 48. This ranking isn't bad but it is not a ranking you would expect from a championship team. Memphis ranks high in defensive efficiency at # 2 but only comes in # 17 in offensive efficiency.
However, their slightly lower offensive ranking is mostly due to their poor free throw shooting and I believe this will not be as much of an issue come tournament time. I think this team is actually the true # 2 team in the country and I believe they will square off with Kansas in the title game.
Wisconsin in my opinion has little chance of making the Final Four or the Elite 8 for that matter. I just think their style of play is not built for tournament time because their offensive effective FG% rank is a lowly 144, despite playing against Big 10 competition. They do have good defensive ratings though, coming in # 1 in overall defensive efficiency and # 6 in effective FG%.
So right now I have Kansas beating Memphis in the title game because UCLA's effective FG% ratings scare me off since they are way above the trend. Combine this with the fact that they may not be 100% healthy and I'm not sure they will make the Final 4 either. My only problem here is that I'm not sure there is a team that can beat them out in their region, so they may be able to sneak into the Final 4 despite their lower rankings and injuries.
Xavier would be a prime candidate to knock off UCLA because they rank better than UCLA in offensive effective FG%(12) and defensive effective FG%(44). However, they have injury problems of their own with Drew Lavender gimping around on a bad ankle. This makes me hesitant to pick them as well.
In fact there isn't one team in this region that fits into the trends for teams that have made the Final 4 since 2004. Here are the best offensive and defensive effective FG% for the other possible candidates in this region: Duke(31,69) UConn(136, 9) Drake(59, 166). I this this bracket has the best chance to get busted up and have a wild card team get to the Final 4. I'm still going to go with UCLA but don't be surprised to see Xavier or UConn make it to the Final 4.
Although the trend is for one of the top two teams in overall efficiency to win the championship, this year is an extremely strong year at the top of those rankings. There are two other teams who rank right up there with UCLA in a battle for the second best team: Memphis and Wisconsin. So I have to at least take a look at these two teams.
Memphis has a strong rating of # 4 in defensive effective FG%, but their offensive effective FG% is only # 48. This ranking isn't bad but it is not a ranking you would expect from a championship team. Memphis ranks high in defensive efficiency at # 2 but only comes in # 17 in offensive efficiency.
However, their slightly lower offensive ranking is mostly due to their poor free throw shooting and I believe this will not be as much of an issue come tournament time. I think this team is actually the true # 2 team in the country and I believe they will square off with Kansas in the title game.
Wisconsin in my opinion has little chance of making the Final Four or the Elite 8 for that matter. I just think their style of play is not built for tournament time because their offensive effective FG% rank is a lowly 144, despite playing against Big 10 competition. They do have good defensive ratings though, coming in # 1 in overall defensive efficiency and # 6 in effective FG%.
So right now I have Kansas beating Memphis in the title game because UCLA's effective FG% ratings scare me off since they are way above the trend. Combine this with the fact that they may not be 100% healthy and I'm not sure they will make the Final 4 either. My only problem here is that I'm not sure there is a team that can beat them out in their region, so they may be able to sneak into the Final 4 despite their lower rankings and injuries.
Xavier would be a prime candidate to knock off UCLA because they rank better than UCLA in offensive effective FG%(12) and defensive effective FG%(44). However, they have injury problems of their own with Drew Lavender gimping around on a bad ankle. This makes me hesitant to pick them as well.
In fact there isn't one team in this region that fits into the trends for teams that have made the Final 4 since 2004. Here are the best offensive and defensive effective FG% for the other possible candidates in this region: Duke(31,69) UConn(136, 9) Drake(59, 166). I this this bracket has the best chance to get busted up and have a wild card team get to the Final 4. I'm still going to go with UCLA but don't be surprised to see Xavier or UConn make it to the Final 4.
My last Final 4 team will come from the UNC/Tennessee/Louisville trio. UNC is a distant 5th in overall efficiency, which is why I eliminated them from having a chance to win the championship. They grade out well in offensive efficiency at # 3 but their defensive efficiency rating is # 20. When you look at their offensive and defensive effective FG% ranks of 70 and 84 respectively, this team does not fit the profile of a Final Four team.
Tennessee grades out low as a two seed overall with an overall efficiency ranking of 14. This is mostly do to their defensive which is only # 34 in defensive efficiency. The offense of course is strong in efficiency at # 8. However, their offensive effective FG%(57) and especially their defensive effective FG%(137) make it unlikely that they will reach the Final 4.
Louisville on the other hand looks like the team that matches up well with Tennessee and UNC. Their overall offensive efficiency(41) and offensive effective FG%(87) rankings are not particular impressive. However, their ranks in overall defensive efficiency(5) and defensive effective FG%(7) and the fact that the two teams they would have to beat to make the Final 4 have poor defensive ratings, leads me to believe they will advance to the Final 4.
So my Final 4 is Kansas, Louisville, Memphis, and UCLA. My championship game is Kansas defeating Memphis.
Potential Upsets with (Overall Efficiency Rank, Offensive Efficiency, Offensive Effective FG%, Defensive Efficiency, & Defensive Effective FG%)
Winthrop(109, 229, 163, 23, 30) vs Washington State(11, 18, 26, 17, 73): Wash St grades out alot better than Winthrop but they both play at a slow pace and Winthrop is strong defensively which means Winthrop will have a slight chance in this game to pull off an upset.
St Joe's(55, 29, 17, 99, 195) vs Oklahoma(36, 73, 161, 25, 33): Good offense vs good defense in this matchup. I think St Joe's pulls the upset here because they can score on anyone and their defense has been improving.
Siena(113, 111, 133, 112, 244) vs Vanderbilt(48, 33, 22 , 77, 141): Many people are picking this as an upset but after looking at the numbers this looks similar to last years matchup of Tennessee vs Long Beach St. In that game Tennesse the 5 seed lit up 12 seeded LB State's poor defense, so I expect Vanderbilt to run it up against Siena.
Cal State Fullerton(110, 71, 19, 171, 295) vs Wisconsin(4, 23, 144, 1, 6): This one is a long shot but I wouldn't be shocked to see it happen. Word is that Wisconsin has trouble with quick, athletic teams which is why Marquette and Duke both handled them during the season. The Big 10 doesn't have many quick atheltic teams, so they were able to cruise right through conference play. Cal State Fullerton has a strong rank of 19 in offensive effective FG% too. Wisconsin likes to keep the pace factor in the 60's, the only two games they played in the 70's they lost, so if CSF can pick up the pace of the game they may have a chance. My main concern here though is that Wisconsin is just too big and physical for CSF and Wisconsin may be able to score inside at will.
Temple(65, 43, 20, 97, 130) vs Michigan State(17, 15, 68, 26, 29): Michigan State grades out well here but they have been inconsistent of late and Temple has won 7 straight games. Temple also is effective offensively, so I'm looking for an upset here.
Cornell(132, 91, 8, 197, 114) vs Stanford(10, 25, 172, 9, 8): Stanford grades out high except for their offensive effective FG% rank of 172. Stanford's poor ranking there and Cornell's # 8 rank in the same category is what puts this game as a possible upset. However, I think this one is unlikely, although Cornell has won 16 straight games.
Western Kentucky(64, 78, 38, 66, 46) vs Drake(24, 6, 59, 67, 166): Western Kentucky is solid in all their rankings for a 12 seed especially. Meanwhile, Drake is not all that hot on the defensive end. Combine that with the fact that Western Kentucky has won 6 straight and 19 of their last 21 and I'm calling for an upset here.
Baylor(39, 13, 80, 88, 88) vs Purdue(25, 52, 206, 13, 123): Purdue is horrible in both offensive and defensive effective FG% and Baylor's ranks decently for an 11 seed, so I think we may see an upset here.
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