NCAA Basketball Weekly: Maryland Sleeper for Final 4, Kentucky, Bubble Watch, Who's In and Who's In Trouble

Here are the top 10 teams in Overall Efficiency:

1. Kansas .984 (315)
2. Duke .979 (76)
3. Syracuse .971 (239)
4. West Virginia .965 (162)
5. Wisconsin .962 (162)
6. Kentucky .957 (162)
7. Purdue .957 (308)
8. BYU .956 (178)
9. Maryland .956 (178)
10. Kansas St .955 (10)

Comments: Kentucky (6), as expected, is moving it's way up the rankings and now has a high enough Overall Efficiency ranking to match their Final 4 hype. Depending on how they finish and what bracket they end up in, I would expect to see them in the Final 4. I do not think they are good enough to win it all at this point though.

Maryland (9) is one team that nobody is talking about as a Final 4 contender. This is because they have just a 16-6 record. However, their Overall Efficiency ranking suggests they are much better than that. Maryland is the type of team that if you don't pay attention they can sneak up on you and ruin your bracket by making a run to the Final 4 and right now I like them as my "sleeper" pick to do that. They have a tough schedule the rest of the way, but it will also be a good test for us to see just how good they are. We all know about Greivis Vasquez (18.1 Points, 4.5 Rebounds, 6.3 assists), but they also have Sean Mosley (84th in the country in offensive efficiency), Landon Milbourne (14.5 Points & 5.4 Rebounds), sharp-shooter Eric Hayes (46.1% 3P%), and freshman big man Jordan Williams (8.4 Points & 7.9 Rebounds). If they finish strong then watch out for this team in the NCAA Tournament.

Bubble Watch:

I came up with a list of teams for my own little version of bracketology based on Overall Efficiency Rankings. For the auto-bids, I used the team with the best efficiency ranking and then I filled in the remaining spots by whatever teams had the highest efficiency rankings as well. I thought this would be a good way to identify which teams have some work to do before they secure an NCAA bid.

Check out the list below:

Rank	Team	Conference Champs
1	Kansas	Big 12 Conference
2	Duke	Atlantic Coast Conference
3	Syracuse	Big East Conference
4	West Virginia
5	Wisconsin	Big Ten Conference
6	Kentucky	Southeastern Conference
7	Purdue
8	Brigham Young	Mountain West Conference
9	Maryland
10	Kansas St.
11	Villanova
12	Missouri
13	Texas
14	Ohio St.
15	Georgetown
16	Baylor
17	California	Pac 10 Conference
18	Marquette
19	Vanderbilt
20	Georgia Tech
21	Clemson
22	Florida St.
23	Utah St.	Western Athletic Conference
24	Louisville
25	Tennessee
26	Michigan St.
27	Old Dominion	Colonial Athletic Association
28	Xavier	Atlantic 10 Conference
29	Butler	Horizon League
30	Pittsburgh
31	Wake Forest
32	Minnesota
33	Nevada Las Vegas
34	Arizona St.
35	Virginia Tech
36	Texas A&M
37	Texas El Paso	Conference USA
38	Mississippi St.
39	New Mexico
40	Mississippi
41	Dayton
42	Gonzaga	West Coast Conference
43	St. Mary's
44	Washington
45	Temple
46	Florida
47	Illinois
48	Northern Iowa	Missouri Valley Conference
49	Siena	Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
50	Kent St.	Mid American Conference
51	Montana	Big Sky Conference
52	Pacific	Big West Conference
53	Wofford	Southern Conference
54	Murray St.	Ohio Valley Conference
55	Western Kentucky	Sun Belt Conference
56	Cornell	Ivy League
57	Belmont	Atlantic Sun Conference
58	Sam Houston St.	Southland Conference
59	IUPUI	Summit League
60	Vermont	America East Conference
61	Lehigh	Patriot League
62	Coastal Carolina	Big South Conference
63	Morgan St.	Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
64	Quinnipiac	Northeast Conference
65	Arkansas Pine Bluff	Southwestern Athletic Conference

I highlighted in red the teams I feel still have work to do. I began by highlighting every team between # 38-47. However, I eliminated Gonzaga and St. Mary's because I think they are both getting in. So that leaves Mississippi State, New Mexico, Mississippi, Dayton, Washington, Temple, Florida, & Illinois. Pretty solid choices for "bubble teams" because one bad losing streak would definitely put each team in jeopardy.

I then added projected conference champions UTEP and Old Dominion because I think there will be some doubt of whether they get in or not if they finish the season poorly and fail to win an auto-bid. That gives me 10 true bubble teams.

However, there are also 4 other teams, who have solid Overall Efficiency rankings, but I feel like they are underrated in the eyes of the public right now and would probably not be locks to make the tournament if it started right now: Marquette (17), Louisville (24), Minnesota (32), & Arizona State (34).

That leaves me with essentially 14 at-large bids that are currently available and that's only if some team doesn't come out of nowhere to steal a conference tournament in one of the larger conferences.

In addition, to the 14 bubble teams already listed, there are several other teams that clearly have work to do if they want to make the NCAA Tournament. These are the teams that I feel are in serious trouble right now and probably have to win at least 75% if their remaining games and pick-up some quality wins along the way. Here's a list of those teams who will be in the mix but still have lots of work to do (overall efficiency rank in parentheses):

VCU (49)
Virginia (50)
Memphis (51)
Northeastern (53)
UConn (54)
Richmond (55)
San Diego State (56)
Miami (58)
UAB (59)
Oklahoma State (60)
Northwestern (62)
UNC (63)
South Florida (65)
Rhode Island (66)
Cincinnati (73)
Notre Dame (74)
Arizona (75)
Charlotte (86)

Last year, Minnesota (45), Michigan (49), Texas A&M (52), Maryland (54), & Dayton (83) had the lowest Overall Efficiency rankings of any of the at-large teams and Georgetown (26), Washington State (32), San Diego State (34), Notre Dame (37), New Mexico (38) had the highest Overall Efficiency rankings of the teams who did not secure an at-large bid. So it's entirely possible that a UConn (54), UNC (63), URI (66), etc. could get an at-large bid over someone like a Louisville (24) or Minnesota (32).

Expect more updates like this now that we are getting closer to the NCAA Tournament.

More: NCAA Basketball

NCAA Basketball Weekly: Kansas Still NCAA Championship Favorites, Potential Final 4 Teams, Kentucky, Marquette, Marcus Morris, Jimmy Butler, & More

Here are the top 10 teams in Overall Efficiency:

1. Kansas .986 (315)
2. Duke .983 (76)
3. Syracuse .973 (239)
4. BYU .966 (308)
5. West Virginia .961 (162)
6. Wisconsin .960 (162)
7. Texas .960 (222)
8. Maryland .956 (178)
9. Purdue .954 (308)
10. Kansas St .949 (10)

Comments: Right now there's two teams based on historical efficiency ratings that have a far greater chance of winning a National Championship then any other teams: Kansas(1) and Duke(2). I'm not really sold on Duke being able to win it all, so I have to say Kansas is the favorite to win it all. Syracuse (3) can put themselves in the discussion by increasing their efficiency rating, but for now I'd have to say they are a long shot.

By the way, the key to a potential Kansas title run is the man pictured above: Marcus Morris. He is the 17th most efficient offensive player in the nation and has been picking his game up big time lately. Over the last 5 games, he's averaging 18.8 points and 7.8 rebounds a game while shooting 65.0% from the field and 80.0% from the line. Put that type of play next to Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich and it's no wonder why Kansas is sitting head and shoulders above most of the other teams in the Top 10.

The rest of the Top 10 is not looking too good. There's been years when the .966 rating BYU has wouldn't even finish in the Top 10 let alone the Top 5, so I have to assume that this year will be similar to last season in that at least one team and most likely two or more teams ranked outside the Top 10 in overall efficiency will make the Final 4.

Because of the lower ratings for the top rated teams, I think we have to lower the criteria for offensive and defensive efficiency of potential Final 4 teams. I normally wouldn't look at any teams ranked outside of the top 25 in each, but this year I may expand it to the top 50 with the thought that some of these teams will improve and move into the Top 30.

Here's a list of teams who rank within the Top 50 in Offensive (OE) & Defensive (DE) Efficiency along with their Overall Efficiency (OVR) rating as well:

Kansas: OE (2), DE (2), OVR (1)

Duke: OE (1), DE (12), OVR (2)

Syracuse: OE (5), DE (8), OVR (3)

BYU: OE (11), DE (16), OVR (4)

West Virginia: OE (8), DE (22), OVR (5)

Wisconsin: OE (28), DE (7), OVR (6)

Texas: OE (23), DE (11), OVR (7)

Maryland: OE (9), DE (30), OVR (8)

Purdue: OE (21), DE (18), OVR (9)

Kansas State: OE (19), DE (20), OVR (10)

Kentucky: OE (14), DE (29), OVR (11)

Missouri: OE (48), DE (6), OVR (12)

Ohio State: OE (16), DE (32), OVR (14)

Michigan State: OE (30), DE (21), OVR (15)

Georgetown: OE (18), DE (33), OVR (16)

Marquette: OE (10), DE (48), OVR (17)

Baylor: OE (15), DE (43), OVR (19)

Arizona State: OE (46), DE (24), OVR (26)

Utah State: OE (29), DE (37), OVR (28)

Butler: OE (26), DE (50), OVR (31)

Xavier: OE (35), DE (40), OVR (33)

Memphis: OE (36), DE (49), OVR (39)

That leaves us with 22 possible Final 4 options as of right now and honestly any team ranked outside the Top 20 in overall efficiency is a long shot. That leaves us with 17 possible candidates as of right now, which will surely change once the tournament begins. I would probably eliminate Missouri too (as of right now), because they are ranked just 48th in offensive efficiency, unless they get in a favorable bracket. Only two teams in the past 6 years have made the Final 4 with an offensive efficiency that low: George Mason (49th in 2006) and LSU (50th in 2006). No other team was worse than 30th.

I would put good money on Kentucky (11) making the Final 4 if they finish in the Top 20 in overall efficiency. Since they have the NBA talent, they are the one team that sticks out the most of all the teams outside the Top 10. Chances are they will finish in the Top 10 though, so that point is probably moot. However, in a year with not so strong teams, their overall talent may be enough to carry them to the Final 4. In any other year, I would most likely say no chance. They could probably do a better job of involving Patrick Patterson though, who happens to be the 7th most efficient offensive player in the nation.

Marquette (17) is going to be a hell of a higher seed if they make the tournament. They are just 12-8 right now but 6 of those losses are to teams ranked in the Top 25 in efficiency. If they really are the 17th best team then I think they will get enough wins to get in and then wreak havoc as a 6 seed or higher. I would not want to be a 1, 2, or 3 seed that draws them in the 2nd Round. Part of the reason Marquette ranks so high is the ridiculous efficiency of Jimmy Butler. The man ranks as the 3rd most efficient player in the nation and is averaging an insane 1.92 points per shot partly because of his great ability to get to the free throw line.

That's all I got for now. Expect more analysis like this once tournament time comes around.

More: NCAA Basketball

NCAA Basketball Weekly: Texas, Kansas, Duke, & Syracuse Early Favorites for Final 4, New Mexico & Other Sleepers, & More

Here are the top 10 teams in Overall Efficiency heading into conference play with strength of schedule in parentheses:

1. Texas .992 (193)
2. Duke .985 (76)
3. Kansas .983 (315)
4. Syracuse .974 (239)
5. Purdue .967 (153)
6. West Virginia .965 (162)
7. Minnesota .964 (222)
8. Clemson .961 (178)
9. BYU .960 (308)
10. California .960 (10)

Comments: Kansas(3) is an early favorite for the National Championship, but they haven't played anyone yet as witnessed by their 315th ranked strength of schedule. They should be there in the end, but I'd like to see how they do against some real competition. California(10) on the other hand has played the 10th toughest schedule and still has a Top 10 offense, which means they can score on anyone, and might cruise through a weak Pac-10. Texas(1), Duke(2), & Syracuse(4) join Kansas(3) to round out the Top 4 and of those teams Duke has played the toughest schedule so far. Usually that doesn't mean much come tournament time, but it should have them ready for conference play, while the others may struggle a little more than expected. I think all are legit Final 4 candidates though.

Other Notables (Possibly Overrated):

20. Kentucky .942 (221)
26. Michigan State .931 (230)
28. Tennessee .926 (233)
33. Villanova .914 (155)
41. Connecticut .899 (66)
44. North Carolina .895 (114)

Comments: Kentucky(20) was ranked even lower than they are now before the past couple weeks, so they look to be a team that is getting better as the season goes on. That is exactly what you would expect from such a young team and I would imagine they will be in the Top 10 in overall efficiency for most of the season. Kentucky(3), Villanova(8), Michigan State(9), and UNC(10) are all ranked in the Top 10 in the polls, so it appears they are overrated as of right now. However, it's still too early to make any concrete statements about the efficiency ratings. Don't be surprised if some of these teams start to struggle in conference play though.

Teams to keep an eye on (Possible Sleepers):

13. Mississippi State .952 (152)
16. Kansas State .946 (69)
18. Old Dominion .944 (75)
19. Tulsa .943 (333)
21. Mississippi .941 (157)
23. New Mexico .937 (167)

Comments: Chances are at least one of these teams will find their way into the Sweet 16 and possibly further. Usually it's the teams with strong offenses who advance and surprise people in the NCAA Tournament. New Mexico(9), Mississippi(13), and Mississippi State(20) have the best offenses from this group, so you definitely want to keep an eye on those teams and keep them fresh in your mind come tournament time. I especially like New Mexico, who has already beaten Cal(10) and Texas A&M(35). They are led by Darington Hobson (16.9 PPG, 8.1 REB, 4.6 AST) and Roman Martinez (16.8 PPG, 5.8 REB, 1.6 STL. Martinez also happens to be ranked 6th overall in the country in offensive rating. New Mexico is ranked pretty high in the polls right now, but chances are they won't be any higher than a 4 or 5 seed come tournament time even if they keep winning, which makes them a sleeper in my mind.

Top 10 in Offensive Efficiency (Points Per 100 Possessions)

1. William & Mary 124.7
2. Kansas 121.7
3. Duke 120.4
4. California 118.8
5. Notre Dame 118.5
6. St. Mary's 117.8
7. Texas 117.6
8. Syracuse 117.4
9. New Mexico 117.1
10. Kansas State 117.0

Comments: William & Mary(74) has one hell of an offense this season and before you write them off remember that they have beaten Wake Forest(43), played UConn(41) well and lost by 9 points, and lost to a decent Harvard(65) team in Triple OT. In conference play, they already knocked off VCU(76) and they should have a strong conference showing when all is said and done.

Top 10 in Defensive Efficiency (Points Allowed Per 100 Possessions)

1. Texas 77.0
2. Minnesota 81.0
3. Purdue 81.4
4. Duke 83.5
5. Temple 83.7
6. BYU 84.1
7. Florida State 84.3
8. Clemson 85.2
9. Missouri 85.3
10. Kansas 85.4

Comments: You need a good defense to make the Final 4, but just having a great defense alone won't get you there. Teams like Minnesota (76 in offense), Temple (115 in offense), and Florida State (154 in offense) will need to improve offensively if they want to advance more than a round or two in the NCAA Tournament. I would pretty much ignore them until they show more consistency on offense.

More: NCAA Basketball

NCAA Basketball Weekly: Al-Farouq Aminu & Other Sophomore Studs, Rotnei Clarke, Ashton Gibbs, UConn, Tyler Roche, Gerard Anderson, & More

Don’t expect any hardcore NCAA analysis from me until at least a couple more weeks, but here’s a couple of players that I noticed from some of the games I got a chance to watch so far:

Ashton Gibbs, Pittsburgh: Was watching this kid play versus Binghamton and he was lighting it up from downtown. He knocked down a total of 6 threes in the game and I really like his stroke. He actually missed all 5 of his three’s in Pitt’s first game, so maybe it was just the law of averages that allowed him to shoot 6 of 10 in their second game, but I still like what I saw from him. I would bet he’s going to end up being one of the better 3-Point shooters in the Big East on a nightly basis.

Rotnei Clarke, Arkansas: This dude dropped 51 points in Arkansas’ first game against Alcorn State. He drilled 13 of 17 threes in the game and shot 15 of 17 overall from the floor. He followed up that monster performance with a respectable 16 points on 6 of 11 shooting against Louisville. He averaged 12.2 points last season as a freshman, so he could be in line for one of those classic sophomore breakout seasons.

Al-Farouq Aminu, Wake Forest: Keep a close eye on Aminu this year, because he’s probably one of the best freshmen from last season who didn’t jump to the NBA. He’s projected to be a Top 5 pick this year and is averaging 24 points and 11 rebounds through two games so far. Expect him to continue to put up numbers like that even once the ACC conference games begin.

Other sophomore’s who should be high draft picks in the NBA this year include: Willie Warren, Oklahoma; Ed Davis, UNC; Devin Ebanks, WVU; Paul George, Fresno St.; Terrico White, Mississippi; & Greg Monroe, Georgetown

Other Random Observations:

- Edgar Sosa is still at Louisville? Why do I feel like he’s been on the team for about 5 or 6 years now? Not only that, but he’s still not any better than he was freshman year.

- Cal State Fullerton’s Gerard Anderson can flat out dunk with the best of them and was wreaking havoc on UCLA in Cal State’s defeat over the Bruins. He even managed to posterize UCLA’s Nikola Dragovic.

- Remember Herbert Hill from Providence a few years back? He basically was a stiff his first 3 seasons and then ended up averaging 18.1 points and 8.8 rebounds a game during his senior year. Well, it’s still early, but it’s possible that Boston College’s Tyler Roche is this year’s Herbert Hill. Roche has done next to nothing his first three years, but is averaging 24.5 points a game right now after hitting 17 of his first 24 shots from the floor, including 9 of 11 from downtown. Will be interesting to see how well he plays once he faces some better competition.

- UConn shouldn’t be as bad as I expected them to be this season after losing the bulk of their team. They still have upper-classmen Stanley Robinson & Jerome Dyson, who should be men amongst boys this year. Add to that super-quick sophomore guard Kemba Walker, the steady if not spectacular Gavin Edwards, and freshmen big man Alex Oriakhi; and the Huskies have a starting 5 that should at least give them a chance to win every night.

More: NCAA Basketball

NCAA Basketball Weekly: Gonzaga Is Final 4 Sleeper, North Carolina's Defense & Why Ed Davis Needs More Minutes, & More

Here are the top 10 teams in Overall Efficiency at the end of the regular season with strength of schedule in parentheses:

1. Memphis .978 (64)
2. North Carolina .973 (17)
3. Connecticut .969 (24)
4. Pittsburgh .969 (19)
5. Gonzaga .965 (87)
6. Duke .961 (8)
7. UCLA .960 (39)
8. Louisville .960 (23)
9. West Virginia .953 (12)
10. Kansas .951 (38)

Last Week:

1. Memphis .978 (61)
2. North Carolina .973 (19)
3. Connecticut .970 (30)
4. Pittsburgh .966 (22)
5. Duke .965 (13)
6. Kansas .960 (38)
7. Louisville .959 (20)
8. West Virginia .958 (7)
9. UCLA .956 (27)
10. Missouri .952 (78)

Gonzaga: Gonzaga enters the Top 10 in a big way by winning their conference tournament and shooting all the way up to 5. I have had my eye on them all season and I think they are a legit candidate to make the Final 4. I would have put them on my list last week, but they were not in the Top 10. After cruising through their conference tournament, their efficiency rating shot right up and they now are right up there with the big boys. I am somewhat skeptical of their efficiency rating, because they haven't played anyone decent since they lost to Memphis(1) at home more than a month ago. However, I still think they are a solid team with their best wins coming against Oklahoma State(31), Washington State(35), Tennessee(38) twice, St. Mary's(60) three times, and Maryland(63). They also played UConn(3) close, along with Arizona(34) and Utah(26). Their only suspect loss was to Portland State(121) who may very well be a tournament team if they can win the Big Sky tournament. So while I am not completely sold on Gonzaga, I think if Gonzaga gets into the bracket that does not have UConn, Pitt, or UNC then they can definitely make an under the radar run the Final 4. The good thing is that I'm thinking whoever the 4th # 1 seed is will get shipped out West and there's a good chance Gonzaga gets to stay out West as well. This is the best case scenerio for Gonzaga if they want to make the Final 4.

North Carolina: At this point, I am convinced that either Pitt, UConn, or UNC will win the national title. If you are considering picking anyone else, I'd like to hear why. North Carolina to me is the deepest team of these three, but their defense is still not quite championship caliber. The Tarheels are 74th in Defensive Effective FG%, which is the most important indicator for success on defense. While 74th isn't bad, it's most likely not good enough to win it all. Here are the Def. Eff. FG% ratings of the last 5 champions: Kansas(9), Florida(18), Florida(16), North Carolina(36), UConn(1). So right there you can see that UNC could be in trouble if they don't improve their defense some more. I personally think they should play freshman big man Ed Davis in the middle instead of Deon Thompson or Tyler Hansbrough. Offensively, Davis and Thompson are a wash, but Davis a much better rebounder and shot blocker than Thompson. In fact, he's one of the best in the country in both areas. He is 23rd in defensive rebounding rate and 42nd in block rate, compared to Thompson who is 496th in defensive rebounding rate and 261st in block rate. I think it's time that Roy Williams to start playing him more, especially since they will need him to beat Pitt or UConn should they meet them down the road. Pay close attention to the ACC tournament to see if Davis gets more minutes. If he doesn't then that might be bad sign once the Final 4 roles around, but if he does get more minutes, then I expect UNC to cut down the nets this year in Detroit.

Other Thoughts:

- After watching both teams play last night, I think VCU and Siena are the two mid-major teams everyone should be looking at come tournament time. They definitely have the talent to go a couple rounds depending on the matchups. Off the top of my head, I can't think of any other mid-major teams that I could see advancing to the Sweet 16, unless you consider Gonzaga or BYU to be mid-majors, which I don't.

- As soon as the NCAA field is set on Sunday, expect to see a bunch of posts here analyzing the current tournament, as well as, historical trends for the Final 4 and upsets. You can check out last year's analysis here: 2008 NCAA Tournament Final Analysis. I will be updating all these posts to include the results from last season and also taking a look at the 2009 tournament. I'm still working on a strategy for picking early round games, but I really feel like the analysis from last year is a solid predictor for the Final 4 and Elite 8. This year looks like it could be especially tricky though and we could have a George Mason type situation, although I don't think it will be a team that random. It's more likely that if a team does make a "cinderella" like run it will be a Syracuse, BYU, or Arizona State type team, instead of a mid-major team like George Mason.

More: NCAA Basketball

NCAA Basketball Weekly: Top 8 Final 4 Candidates, Sherron Collins, Cole Aldrich, & More

Here are the top 10 teams in Overall Efficiency this season with strength of schedule in parentheses:

1. Memphis .978 (61)
2. North Carolina .973 (19)
3. Connecticut .970 (30)
4. Pittsburgh .966 (22)
5. Duke .965 (13)
6. Kansas .960 (38)
7. Louisville .959 (20)
8. West Virginia .958 (7)
9. UCLA .956 (27)
10. Missouri .952 (78)

Last Week:

1. Memphis .978
2. North Carolina .973
3. Pittsburgh .971
4. Connecticut .970
5. Duke .964
6. West Virginia .962
7. Louisville .961
8. Missouri .958
9. UCLA .956
10. Kansas .955

For the first time in weeks, the top 10 teams are the same as last week. The biggest news here is that Kansas(6) continues to rise up the efficiency rankings and is looking like a strong contender for the Final 4. Despite all the love Oklahoma is getting nationally, it looks like Kansas is the best team right now in the Big 12. I'm definitely looking forward to watching the Big 12 tournament to see who comes out on top between Kansas and Oklahoma. Missouri might be able to knock one of them off, but I think they will fall short in the end.

If I had to rank the top 8 teams in order of who I think is most likely to make the Final 4, I would have to go with this:

1.) UConn
2.) UNC
3.) Pitt
4.) Kansas
5.) Duke
6.) Oklahoma
7.) Louisville
8.) Memphis

Players Catching Wreck:

Sherron Collins, Kansas: Collins has been ridiculously good in the last 4 games for Kansas averaging 23.8 points, 4.8 assists, and 1.8 steals, while shooting 54.4% from the field, including 62.5% from long distance. Those are some stud numbers no matter how you look at them. Collins is not expected to come out early for the NBA Draft this year, but if he keeps putting up big numbers and Kansas goes deep in the tournament, I wouldn't be shocked to see him come out early.

Stats: 18.5 points, 2.6 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 1.2 steals, 44.0% FG, 40.2% 3FG, 81.4% FT.

Cole Aldrich, Kansas: Just like his teammate, Sherron Collins, Aldrich has been a beast in the last 4 games for the Jayhawks. He is averaging 18.5 points, 14.3 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks a game while shooting 63.0% from the floor. Cole is projected as a Top 5 pick next year, but he could still see his stock improve this season, and he may want to think about throwing his name into this year's draft, which is considered somewhat weak. After Hasheem Thabeet, the best big man in the draft right now is projected to be Jordan Hill, then you start looking at guys like Al Farouq-Aminu, Greg Monroe, and B.J. Mullens. I think Aldrich could definitely work his way into that group and get picked in the back end of this year's lottery.

Stats: 15.1 points, 10.8 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 2.5 blocks, 61.4% FG, 78.0 FT

Unheralded Player of The Week:

Booker Woodfox, Creighton: You may want to remember this guy's name, because he will be the key to any NCAA Tournament win the Creighton Blue Jays get this year. He shoots over 50% from both the field and from three and is the leading scorer for Creighton. The Blue Jays love to shoot the deep ball as a team, but Woodfox might have to carry more of the load once Creighton is in the tournament.

Stats: 15.9 points, 2.4 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 50.2% FG, 50.9%3FG, 88.8% FT

Games To Checkout This Week (Overall Efficiency Rank):

Tuesday:
Florida State(44) at Duke(5)
Wake Forest(18) at Maryland(58)
Kansas State(38) at Oklahoma State(36)
Utah(27) at New Mexico(33)

Wednesday:
North Carolina(2) at Virginia Tech(70)
Illinois(24) at Penn State(79)
Wisconsin(29) at Minnesota(47)
Oklahoma(17) at Missouri(10)
Marquette(22) at Pittsburgh(4)
Memphis(1) at Houston(55)

Thursday:
Dayton(78) at Xavier(25)
Providence(71) at Villanova(19)
California(30) at Arizona(34)
Tennessee(42) at South Carolina(51)

Friday:
None

Saturday:
Michigan(61) at Minnesota(47)
Missouri(10) at Texas A&M(49)
Oklahoma State(36) at Oklahoma(17)
Texas(28) at Kansas(6)
UConn(3) at Pitt(4)
Louisville(7) at West Virginia(8)
Syracuse(23) at Marquette(22)
UNLV(48) at San Diego State(43)
California(30) at Arizona State(14)
Kentucky(35) at Florida(45)

Sunday:
Clemson(20) at Wake Forest(18)
Duke(5) at North Carolina(2)
Virginia Tech(70) at Florida State(44)
Purdue(15) at Michigan State(11)

More: NCAA Basketball

NCAA Basketball Weekly: Kansas Improving, Oklahoma Still A Mystery, Willie Warren's Stock Is Rising, Mountain West Conference, & More

Here are the top 10 teams in Overall Efficiency this season with strength of schedule in parentheses:

1. Memphis .978 (12)
2. North Carolina .973 (48)
3. Pittsburgh .971 (8)
4. Connecticut .970 (21)
5. Duke .964 (15)
6. West Virginia .962 (3)
7. Louisville .961 (32)
8. Missouri .958 (86)
9. UCLA .956 (27)
10. Kansas .955 (26)

Last Week:

1. North Carolina .978 (12)
2. Memphis .976 (48)
3. Pittsburgh .974 (8)
4. Connecticut .973 (21)
5. Duke .968 (15)
6. West Virginia .962 (3)
7. UCLA .960 (32)
8. Missouri .958 (86)
9. Arizona State .951 (27)
10. Louisville .951 (26)

Kansas(10) has worked their way into the Top 10 for the first time this season, replacing Arizona State(12). Yes, the Jayhawks are good, but they are probably third level good at best. They still have an outside shot at making the Final 4, but they would probably need to be in the right bracket. I do like that they have been improving throughout the season, so Kansas is definitely a team to keep an eye on down the stretch, because they may show us even more than they have so far. A Big 12 tourney championship would mean this team is probably going to be a handful in the NCAA Tournament.

Teams To Keep An Eye On:

Oklahoma: The Sooner are a frustrating team for me because they have been ranked outside the Top 10 in efficiency for almost the whole season, despite being what many see as one of the favorites to reach the Final 4. I have held back on calling them an elite team, because their defense is holding them back somewhat efficiency wise. Their weaknesses on the defensive side are not being able to turn other teams over(283rd), defensive rebounding(148th), and guarding against the three(201st). Right now, if they do get a # 1 seed along with UConn, Pitt, & UNC, then they would look like the # 1 seed most likely to get knocked off. However, they certainly have some high quality NBA talent on their team with Blake Griffen and Willie Warren, which is why I am hesitant to doubt this team. Also, efficiency wise, this season is as close to the year that George Mason made the Final 4 than any other recent season, which means even if Oklahoma does not have a high caliber defense, their overall talent might be enough to get them into the Final 4. It would have been nice to see Griffen play against Texas and Kansas though, so we could gauge just how good this team really is. Right now their best wins are against Purdue(17) and Utah(27) and while both of those teams are solid, they are definitely not the benchmarks to use when judging if a team is great. I'm not sure they can matchup with UConn, Pitt, and UNC and unfortunately we won't know the answer until well after we fill out our brackets.

Mountain West Conference: With teams like Georgetown continuing to lose and a lack of high quality mid-majors teams that deserve automatic bids, the conference that could benefit the most is the Mountain West. They are ranked as the 7th best conference about even with the SEC and well ahead of Conference USA and the A-10. They will almost certainly get 2 and probably 3 bids and may have a chance to get even more. There are currently 5 teams in the conference ranked in the top 50 in efficiency: BYU(15), Utah(27), New Mexico(30), San Diego State(39), and UNLV(49). Utah is currently leading the conference and will definitely be in if they win it and at this point it looks like they will at least tie for the lead. Utah also has a win over Gonzaga(13). BYU, in my mind should be in, since they have a victory over Utah State(50) and played both Arizona State(12) and Wake Forest(18) extremely close to go along with victories over San Diego State and New Mexico. UNLV sports victories over Louisville(7) and Arizona(33) and has beaten BYU twice and will have a chance to beat Utah for the second time on Wednesday. ESPN even has San Diego State in the tournament right now, which would just leave out New Mexico.

Players Catching Wreck:

Willie Warren, Oklahoma: Despite the fact that Oklahoma has lost their last two games, it has been no fault of Willie Warren. Without Blake Griffen, Willie has really stepped his game up, which could be a plus for the Sooners come tournament time. If Warren can continue his good play from the last two games when Griffen comes back, then Oklahoma will greatly strengthen theirs chances of making the Final 4. In the past two games, Warren has averaged 25.0 points and 4.5 assists, while shooting 18 of 36 from the floor, including 9 of 18 from three. Warren is most likely going to be a one and done player and has worked his way into a projected lottery pick with his recent performance.

Stats: 15.6 points, 2.1 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.3 steals, 49.3% FG, 38.7% 3FG.

Unheralded Player of The Week:

Ryan Rossiter, Siena: You may or may not know that Siena is leading the MAAC right now with a 15-1 record. You probably should remember Kenny Hasbrouck from last year's team that upset Vanderbilt in the NCAA Tournament. However, chances are that you have never even heard of sophomore forward Ryan Rossiter, but he could be the key reason why Siena might be even better than last year. The 6'9 Rossiter is the 24th most efficient offensive player in the country and is 14th in true shooting percentage. He is a double-double threat and also active on the defensive end. He could be a key to any cinderella tourney run that Siena makes.

Stats: 9.4 points, 7.4 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.3 steals, 2.0 blocks, 61.9% FG, 80.9% FT

Other Thoughts:

- Florida State is currently being projected as a 4 seed, but they rank 48th in overall efficiency, so they are clearly not even close to being one of the top 16 teams in the country. History tells us that teams that are seeded too high compared to their overall efficiency rankings generally get knocked off early in the tournament. If Florida State is given a high seed that is a 5 or better, look for them to be a strong candidate to lose in the first round, and I would not expect them to get past the second round, unless they are matched against another poorly seeded team. I will be doing more analysis like this again this year once all brackets are set next month, so be on the lookout for that.

Games To Checkout This Week (Overall Efficiency Rank):

Tuesday:
BYU(15) at San Diego State(39)
Florida(41) at LSU(40)
Florida State(48) at Boston College(59)

Wednesday:
Dayton(85) at URI(60)
Duke(5) at Maryland(66)
Kansas State(37) at Missouri(8)
UConn(4) at Marquette(21)
UNLV(49) at Utah(27)
Kentucky(26) at South Carolina(55)

Thursday:
Minnesota(47) at Illinois(22)
Purdue(17) at Michigan(69)
West Virginia(6) at Cincinnati(63)
Memphis(1) at UAB(36)
Arizona State(12) at Washington(16)
USC(35) at California(31)

Friday:
Siena(64) at Niagra(68)

Saturday:
Clemson(14) at Florida State(48)
Duke(5) at Virginia Tech(76)
Texas(25) at Oklahoma State(46)
Georgetown(23) at Villanova(20)
Notre Dame(32) at UConn(4)
Utah(27) at BYU(15)
Arizona(33) at Washington(16)
UCLA(9) at California(31)
LSU(40) at Kentucky(26)

Sunday:
Michigan(69) at Wisconsin(29)
Michigan State(11) at Illinois(22)
Ohio State(44) at Purdue(17)
Missouri(8) at Kansas(10)
Cincinnati(63) at Syracuse(34)
Marquette(21) at Louisville(7)
Tennessee(42) at Florida(41)

Monday:
Baylor(53) at Texas(25)
Villanova(20) at Notre Dame(32)

More: NCAA Basketball

NCAA Basketball Weekly: Pitt Defeats # 1 UConn, DeJuan Blair Is A Beast, Could We Have Another George Mason?, & More

Overall Efficiency:

Here are the top 10 teams in Overall Efficiency this season with strength of schedule in parentheses:

1. North Carolina .978 (12)
2. Memphis .976 (48)
3. Pittsburgh .974 (8)
4. Connecticut .973 (21)
5. Duke .968 (15)
6. West Virginia .962 (3)
7. UCLA .960 (32)
8. Missouri .958 (86)
9. Arizona State .951 (27)
10. Louisville .951 (26)

Last Week:

1. Duke .976 (19)
2. Connecticut .975 (38)
3. North Carolina .973 (36)
4. Pittsburgh .972 (15)
5. Memphis .966 (50)
6. UCLA .966 (62)
7. Louisville .959 (18)
8. West Virginia .957 (2)
9. Missouri .955 (78)
10. Gonzaga .954 (46)

Gonzaga(13) is the only team to drop out of the Top 10 from last week. They were replaced by Arizona State(9) after their two impressive victories over UCLA(7) & USC(34). It's starting to look like there is a clear top 3: UNC, UConn, & Pitt and then everyone else is at least a step below. It's also looking more and more like this could be a year where a team could make a George Mason like run into the Final 4, since the overall efficiency scores are lower for the top 10 teams than usual. Probably not a team from a mid-major, but if you are a 3 seed to 7 seed, you might have an excellent chance to make a run if you get in the bracket that doesn't have UConn, UNC, or Pitt. I could definitely see a team like Arizona State, Marquette, Arizona, Missouri etc. stepping it up at the right time in the tournament and making an unexpected run.

Pittsburgh Defeats UConn: I know UConn lost this game last night, but I think it tells us more about Pitt than it does about UConn. Honestly, other than Blake Griffen, I can't see another big man in the country that could handle Hasheem Thabeet like DeJuan Blair did last night. The fact that he could put up such big numbers against Thabeet tells me that nobody is going to be able to stop him in the tournament and that is going to be a big advantage for Pitt. That's also good news for UConn since they most likely will not go up against Pitt or Oklahoma until deep into the Tournament, most likely the Final 4. I'm not worried about the loss of Jerome Dyson too much, because I love Kemba Walker's speed and energy out there on the court and I think Craig Austrie has a few big three pointers in him. So yeah UConn will be just fine and Pitt showed me a hell of a lot last night. Enough for me to put them right up there with UNC and UConn as Final 4 favorites. The way things are shaping up, I think those 3 will be # 1 seeds and Oklahoma should be able to claim the 4th # 1 seed. I don't see anyone in the Pac-10 separating themselves enough to claim a # 1 seed

Players Catching Wreck:

DeJuan Blair, Pitt: After last night, how could I not show this guy some love? 22 points and 23 rebounds against UConn and Hasheem Thabeet is NO JOKE. Blair has been killing teams all year and ranks 10th in overall efficiency, 1st in offensive rebounding %, and 5th in defensive rebounding %. He's also 14th in turnover rate, 74th in steals %, and 79th in effective FG%. It's not hard to see that Blair is quite simply a GREAT college player. Right now NBADraft.net has him going 23rd in the NBA Draft and DraftExpress has him going 19th in the NBA Draft. Would that be enough for Blair to leave after his sophomore year? I'm not so sure it is, but if he works his way up to the Top 15 then I think he leaves. My guess is that he will be playing for Pitt next season though.

Stats: 15.7 points, 12.8 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.6 steals, 59.9% FG

Unheralded Player of The Week:

Marcus Johnson, Dayton: You may or may not have noticed that Dayton knocked off Xavier this past week. Johnson was a big reason why, since he scored 13 points in the game on 6-10 shooting. He is their second leading scorer after Chris Wright and has helped Dayton claim a share of the A-10 lead and a 23-3 record overall.

Stats: 11.6 points, 48.0% FG, 37.3% 3FG

Other Thoughts:

- You already know that Blake Griffen is a beast, but I couldn't finish this post without mentioning the monster 40 points, 23 rebound game he had against Texas Tech this past weekend.

- Shooting machine Jodie Meeks was back at it again this weekend as well. Meeks poured in 45 points in a win against Arkansas, nailing 7 threes in the process. Meeks now has 3 games this season where he scored more than 40 points.

Games To Checkout This Week (Overall Efficiency Rank):

Tuesday:
Michigan State(11) at Purdue(17)
New Mexico(43) at BYU(15)

Wednesday:
Miami(25) at Florida State(54)
Notre Dame(36) at West Virginia(6)

Thursday:
Washington(19) at UCLA(7)

Friday:

None

Saturday:
Illinois(21) at Ohio State(42)
Oklahoma(14) at Texas(28)
Marquette(23) at Georgetown(22)
Butler(38) at Davidson(45)
BYU(15) at UNLV(47)
San Diego State(29) at New Mexico(43)
Washington(19) at USC(34)
Tennessee(31) at Kentucky(26)

Sunday:
Wake Forest(18) at Duke(5)
Wisconsin(32) at Michigan State(11)
Villanova(16) at Syracuse(33)
Arizona(36) at Arizona State(9)

Monday:
Kansas(12) at Oklahoma(14)
Louisville(10) at Georgetown(22)

More: NCAA Basketball

NCAA Basketball Weekly: Pitt's Final 4 Chances, UCLA & Memphis Are Underrated, Michigan State's Top 10 Offense?, Marcus Thornton, & More

Overall Efficiency:

Here are the top 10 teams in Overall Efficiency this season with strength of schedule in parentheses:

1. Duke .976 (19)
2. Connecticut .975 (38)
3. North Carolina .973 (36)
4. Pittsburgh .972 (15)
5. Memphis .966 (50)
6. UCLA .966 (62)
7. Louisville .959 (18)
8. West Virginia .957 (2)
9. Missouri .955 (78)
10. Gonzaga .954 (46)

Last Week:

1. Duke .986 (22)
2. Connecticut .977 (26)
3. North Carolina .977 (20)
4. Pittsburgh .969 (16)
5. Gonzaga .966 (46)
6. West Virginia .962 (7)
7. Memphis .961 (56)
8. UCLA .960 (69)
9. Louisville .958 (14)
10. Wake Forest .955 (78)

Missouri(9) jumped up 3 spots from #12 and moved back into the top 10 replacing a struggling Wake Forest(17) team. The rest of the list looks pretty similar to last week except for Gonzaga(10) dropping down 5 spots after their beatdown from Memphis(5).

Duke: Duke(1) had a big drop in efficiency rating and no longer is the clear cut # 1 team in efficiency. I'm not surprised they have come back down to earth because they didn't LOOK like the best team far and away to me. I think they just didn't have anyone who gave them a good test until the past couple weeks. I think UNC is better than Duke, but since it's a home game for Duke then I could see them coming up with a victory in that one tomorrow. It might be one of the few conference games left that UNC actually has a chance to lose.

Memphis & UCLA: Memphis(5) & UCLA(6) are really going to sneak up on people with the way they have been playing lately. Both of them lost some big time NBA talent off of last year's Final 4 teams and are clearly not even close to being as good as last season, but this year is a somewhat down year in college basketball. So even though Memphis & UCLA are not as good as last year, they still rank among the top teams in the country. Right now, Memphis is still lacking on the offensive end, but moved up 20 spots in efficiency this past week from 61 to 41, so they look like they are definitely improving there. They are strong in three areas on offense: protecting the ball(27), offensive rebounding(36), and getting to the free throw line(78). Their weakness right now and unfortunately for them, it's the most important offensive stat, is their effective FG%, where they rank 152nd. They'll need to improve that greatly before they have a legitimate chance at the Final 4. They are the top rated defensive in effective FG% though. UCLA on the other hand is lacking on the defensive side of the ball for most of the season, but has improved over the last few weeks. They are now up to 26th in defensive efficiency, which looks pretty solid next to the 3rd ranked offense. They are definitely a sleeper to make the Final 4 again this season. Their defensive effective FG% ranking(138th) leaves a little to be desired, but they do rank strongly in forcing turnovers(20) and defensive rebounding(45).

Pittsburgh: Pitt is now ranked as the # 1 team in offensive efficiency. In the past 5 years they have ranked: 8th, 12th, 21st, 19th, & 18th at the end of year in offensive efficiency. So offensively, this has been by far the best Pitt team of any in the past 5 years. The defense is pretty consistent with Pitt teams of the past, so I have to wonder if this is the year Pitt finally gets into the Final 4. Just taking a quick look at the # 1 team in offensive efficiency over the past 5 years: UNC '08, Florida '07, UNC '05 all made the Final 4, while Gonzaga lost in the Sweet 16 to UCLA in '06 and Wake Forest lost to St. Joes in the Sweet 16 in '04. However, Gonzaga(178) and Wake Forest(82) were far worse on defense than Pitt is right now and Pitt matches up better with the two UNC teams and Florida. This is definitely something I want to keep an eye on.

West Virginia: It might surprise some that a West Virginia team that has a record of 16-8 would be ranked as the 8th most efficient team in the nation, but all of their losses has been to top notch teams: UConn(2), Pitt(4) twice, Louisville(7), Marquette(23), Syracuse(35), Kentucky(31), and Davidson(42). Definitely no shame in any of those losses and WV has had the 2nd toughest schedule in the nation this year. The Mountaineers might be able to sneak up on some teams come tournament time who don't realize how good of a team they are, since they are certainly battle tested.

Teams To Keep An Eye On(Or Not):

Michigan State: Okay, first off, let me say that I am not really too high on this Michigan State squad, but they have managed to sneak their way into the top in offensive efficiency at # 9. History shows that teams in the Top 10 in offensive efficiency are far more likely to make the Final 4 than those that aren't. It's probably the first indicator to look at when trying to predict who will make the Final 4. Meanwhile, the Spartans rank 27th in defensive efficiency, which is certainly good enough for them to advance deep in the tournament as well. However, a closer look at their offensive and defensive efficiency ratings shows their ratings may be a bit decieving: Effective FG%(79, 131), Turnover%(154, 201), Off/Def Rebounding%(4, 7), & FT Rate(58, 124). Notice that they pretty much suck in every offensive and defensive category except rebounding, where they are excellent, and they are also decent at getting to the free throw line. I'm always suspect of any team that has a high offensive rating because of their offensive rebounding, since it's not really a good thing if you are relying on your team to score off your own misses. Eventually, you would think you'd come across a good defensive rebounding team that would keep you off the offensive boards and your offense would tank. I'd also like to add that almost every team in the Big 10 other than Michigan State sucks at defensive rebounding, except for Penn State & Wisconsin, and it just so happens that Penn State was able to beat Michigan State. We'll see what happens when Wisconsin meets up with Michigan State. So, as of right now I'm still not buying that this Michigan State team has a Final 4 run in them, but because they are now in the Top 10 in offensive efficiency, I'm not completely counting them out just yet.

Players Catching Wreck:

Marcus Thornton, LSU: It's long overdue for me to show LSU guard Marcus Thornton some love, but with LSU having won 7 of their las 8 games, now is the pefect time to do so. Thornton has been solid all season and actually is the 2nd most efficient player on offense in the nation of any player that played at least 40% of his team's minutes and been involved in at least 28% of the possessions used. Which means not only is he carrying a big load for his team, but he's also doing it pretty damn efficiently as well. When you are a guard who is shooting 49.7% from the floor and 41.2% from three, it's not hard to see what makes him so efficient. NBADraft.net currently has Thornton as a second round pick in their most recent mock draft, but he could be a late bloomer who is just undervalued at this point. Draftexpress.com also has him as a second round pick.

Stats: 20.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.7 steals, 49.7% FG, 41.2% 3FG

Unheralded Player of The Week:

Jermaine Dixon, Pittsburgh: Yeah, I know another Big East player, but this one deserves as much shine as any other player in the nation. After struggling for most of the season with his shot, Dixon has been playing great the past 4 games for the Panthers averaging 12.0 points a game, while shooting 65.4% from the floor and 69.2% from three. If Dixon can keep scorching the nets like that, Pitt should have an excellent chance to make it to the Final 4.

Stats: 8.8 points, 1.7 steals, 45.1% FG, 30.8% 3FG

Games To Checkout This Week (Overall Efficiency Rank):

Tuesday:
Marquette(23) at Villanova(14)
Oklahoma State(46) at Texas(27)
Florida(37) at Kentucky(31)

Wednesday:
UNC(3) at Duke(1)
Syracuse(35) at UConn(2)
Oklahoma(18) at Baylor(45)
San Diego State(25) at Utah(28)

Thursday:
UCLA(6) at Arizona State(12)

Friday:
Villanova(14) at West Virginia(8)

Saturday:
UCLA(6) at Arizona(43)
Kansas(13) at Kansas State(34)
Georgetown(24) at Syracuse(35)

Sunday:
UNC(3) at Miami(26)
USC(32) at Arizona State(12)

Monday:
Pitt(4) at UConn(2)

More: NCAA Basketball

NCAA Basketball Weekly: UConn Favorites To Win It All, Purdue, Bad Offense = No Final 4, & More

Overall Efficiency:

Here are the top 10 teams in Overall Efficiency this season with strength of schedule in parentheses:

1. Duke .986 (22)
2. Connecticut .977 (26)
3. North Carolina .977 (20)
4. Pittsburgh .969 (16)
5. Gonzaga .966 (46)
6. West Virginia .962 (7)
7. Memphis .961 (56)
8. UCLA .960 (69)
9. Louisville .958 (14)
10. Wake Forest .955 (78)

Last Week:

1. Duke .987 (25)
2. North Carolina .978 (27)
3. Pittsburgh .975 (19)
4. Gonzaga .968 (42)
5. Arizona State .965 (28)
6. Connecticut .965 (39)
7. Louisville .962 (22)
8. Missouri .960 (170)
9. Memphis .959 (48)
10. West Virginia .958 (9)

UCLA(8) joins the top 10 for the first time this season I believe and was joined by Wake Forest(10), who has been in and out of the top 10 all season. They replaced Missouri(12) and a struggling Arizona State(15).

UConn: UConn has been slowly moving their way up this list and I now feel like they are my favorite to win it all and it has nothing to do with their # 1 ranking in the polls. They are # 2 in overall efficiency, but they also rank 5th in off. efficiency and 7th in def. efficiency. Duke is the only other team to rank in the top 10 in both of those. Typically teams that rank in the top 10 in both offense and defense have a great chance of making the Final 4 and I tend to think that UConn is a little too physical and athletic for Duke. North Carolina might be the next best team with Oklahoma lurking in the wings. UConn's one glaring weakness is probably their three-point shooting, but they hit none last night and still won the game by 17 points.

Things I Said Last Week:

Louisville: However, the offense is still not so hot and I can seem them getting knocked off in the tournament if the offense doesn't pick it up a notch or two. They are ranked 82nd overall in Off. Efficiency, including 146th in Effective FG%, 190th in 3-Point%, and 205th in Free Throw Rate. Basically, they don't shoot the ball well from the floor, especially from deep, and they don't get to the free throw line enough to make up for their poor free throw shooting. I don't know about you, but I don't like that combination around tournament time.

Outcome: Louisville showed all their offensive weakness against a UConn team that has superior athleticism. They shot just 34.4% from the floor, including 5 of 17 from three, and they took just 2 free throws the whole game and they were at home. UConn basically turned them into a jump shooting team, which is not their strength to say the least.

Duke: Duke is really pulling away from the field and I'm starting to wonder if they really are that much better than everyone else. We should find out Wednesday, when they travel to play Wake Forest, just how good they are. If you are looking for a weakness, the Blue Devils do not shoot the 3 all that well, ranking 129th in the country. A good defensive team like Wake may also be able to slow them down offensively a little bit as well because they rank 52nd in Effective FG%, which is solid, but not great.

Outcome: Turns out a good defensive team like Wake CAN slow down Duke after the Dunkin' Deacons held Duke to 33.3% shooting from the floor, including an awful 4 off 22 from downtown. Score that one as another accurate scouting report by me.

Teams To Keep An Eye On (Or Not):

Purdue: Sure, you might think Purdue(11) is a team that could challenge for a Final 4 berth, but that's only if you think that a team ranked 74th overall on offense could make the Final 4. If you do, then you would be going against the trend, because the majority of the Final 4 teams the past 5 years have been ranked in the top 30 overall in offense efficiency and usually 3 of the 4 are ranked in the top 10. The only teams to be ranked outside the top 30 in offensive efficiency to make a Final 4 in the past 5 years are George Mason(49) and LSU(50), both in 2006. That year had by far the weakest group of teams in the past 6 years in regards to overall efficiency. You have to go back to UCLA in 2006, who ranked 28th in offensive efficiency, to find the next "worst" team on offense to make a Final 4. In other words, unless Purdue picks things up big time on the offensive end their chances of making the Final 4 are pretty much NONE.

Other possible tournament teams that need to improve offensively (off. rank): Memphis(61), Kentucky(70), Illinois(80), Texas(81), USC(84), Louisville(94), Florida State(140).

Right now these teams have little to no chance of advancing to the Final 4. Even Wake Forest(45) would be a sketchy choice for the Final 4 if it wasn't for their 5th ranked defense. I think Wake Forest's offense will be fine in the tournament, as long as they don't turn the ball over. They are also very athletic and have 3 possible future NBA players on their squad, which should increase their Final 4 chances despite their average offensive efficiency ranking.

Players Catching Wreck:

Hasheem Thabeet, UConn: The Huskies big fella has been playing solid ball of late and racked up a triple double against PC with 15 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 blocks. Hell, he even hit a jump shot against Louisville last night. Thabeet is going to cause opposing offenses problems in the NCAA Tournament as long as he stays out of foul trouble. Anything he adds on offense is just a bonus at this point.

Stats: 13.0 points, 10.1 rebounds, 4.0 blocks, 64.5% FG.

Unheralded Player of The Week:

Randall Hanke, Providence: This Providence big man doesn't see as much time on the court because of his suspect defense, but on the offensive end he is highly efficient. A great example of an unheralded player, Hanke shoots an incredible 70.9% from the field, which is best in the nation. Over the past two games, Hanke has averaged 14 points and 5 rebounds, while hitting 13 of 17 shots from the floor. He's part of the reason why the Friars are 27th in the nation in 2-point FG% at 52.9%. Now if only they could knock down some more threes.

Stats: 9.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 70.9% FG

Games To Checkout This Week (Overall Efficiency Rank):

Wednesday:
Duke(1) at Clemson(22)
USC(28) at UCLA(8)
Missouri(12) at Texas(26)
West Virginia(6) at Syracuse(33)
Wake Forest(10) at Miami(44)
Minnesota(34) at Michigan State(21)

Thursday:
Washington(14) at Cal(35)

Saturday:
Memphis(7) at Gonzaga(5)
Syracuse(33) at Villanova(16)
Notre Dame(48) at UCLA(8)
Miami(44) at Duke(1)

Sunday:
Purdue(11) at Illinois(24)

Monday:
West Virginia(6) at Pittsburgh(4)
Kansas(17) at Missouri(12)

Other Thoughts:

- Big Points: Utah Valley's Ryan Toolson dropped 63 points against Chicago State
and Kansas State's Denis Clemente dropped 44 points in an upset win over Texas. Good work fellas.

- Make sure you vote for who you think will be the National Champion this year in my poll on the top right side of this blog.

More: NCAA Basketball