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Overall Efficiency:Here are the top 10 teams in Overall Efficiency this season with strength of schedule in parentheses:
1. Duke .986 (22)
2. Connecticut .977 (26)
3. North Carolina .977 (20)
4. Pittsburgh .969 (16)
5. Gonzaga .966 (46)
6. West Virginia .962 (7)
7. Memphis .961 (56)
8. UCLA .960 (69)
9. Louisville .958 (14)
10. Wake Forest .955 (78)
Last Week:
1. Duke .987 (25)
2. North Carolina .978 (27)
3. Pittsburgh .975 (19)
4. Gonzaga .968 (42)
5. Arizona State .965 (28)
6. Connecticut .965 (39)
7. Louisville .962 (22)
8. Missouri .960 (170)
9. Memphis .959 (48)
10. West Virginia .958 (9)
UCLA(8) joins the top 10 for the first time this season I believe and was joined by Wake Forest(10), who has been in and out of the top 10 all season. They replaced Missouri(12) and a struggling Arizona State(15).
UConn: UConn has been slowly moving their way up this list and I now feel like they are my favorite to win it all and it has nothing to do with their # 1 ranking in the polls. They are # 2 in overall efficiency, but they also rank 5th in off. efficiency and 7th in def. efficiency. Duke is the only other team to rank in the top 10 in both of those. Typically teams that rank in the top 10 in both offense and defense have a great chance of making the Final 4 and I tend to think that UConn is a little too physical and athletic for Duke. North Carolina might be the next best team with Oklahoma lurking in the wings. UConn's one glaring weakness is probably their three-point shooting, but they hit none last night and still won the game by 17 points.
Things I Said Last Week:
Louisville: However, the offense is still not so hot and I can seem them getting knocked off in the tournament if the offense doesn't pick it up a notch or two. They are ranked 82nd overall in Off. Efficiency, including 146th in Effective FG%, 190th in 3-Point%, and 205th in Free Throw Rate. Basically, they don't shoot the ball well from the floor, especially from deep, and they don't get to the free throw line enough to make up for their poor free throw shooting. I don't know about you, but I don't like that combination around tournament time.
Outcome: Louisville showed all their offensive weakness against a UConn team that has superior athleticism. They shot just 34.4% from the floor, including 5 of 17 from three, and they took just 2 free throws the whole game and they were at home. UConn basically turned them into a jump shooting team, which is not their strength to say the least.
Duke: Duke is really pulling away from the field and I'm starting to wonder if they really are that much better than everyone else. We should find out Wednesday, when they travel to play Wake Forest, just how good they are. If you are looking for a weakness, the Blue Devils do not shoot the 3 all that well, ranking 129th in the country. A good defensive team like Wake may also be able to slow them down offensively a little bit as well because they rank 52nd in Effective FG%, which is solid, but not great.
Outcome: Turns out a good defensive team like Wake CAN slow down Duke after the Dunkin' Deacons held Duke to 33.3% shooting from the floor, including an awful 4 off 22 from downtown. Score that one as another accurate scouting report by me.
Teams To Keep An Eye On (Or Not):
Purdue: Sure, you might think Purdue(11) is a team that could challenge for a Final 4 berth, but that's only if you think that a team ranked 74th overall on offense could make the Final 4. If you do, then you would be going against the trend, because the majority of the Final 4 teams the past 5 years have been ranked in the top 30 overall in offense efficiency and usually 3 of the 4 are ranked in the top 10. The only teams to be ranked outside the top 30 in offensive efficiency to make a Final 4 in the past 5 years are George Mason(49) and LSU(50), both in 2006. That year had by far the weakest group of teams in the past 6 years in regards to overall efficiency. You have to go back to UCLA in 2006, who ranked 28th in offensive efficiency, to find the next "worst" team on offense to make a Final 4. In other words, unless Purdue picks things up big time on the offensive end their chances of making the Final 4 are pretty much NONE.
Other possible tournament teams that need to improve offensively (off. rank): Memphis(61), Kentucky(70), Illinois(80), Texas(81), USC(84), Louisville(94), Florida State(140).
Right now these teams have little to no chance of advancing to the Final 4. Even Wake Forest(45) would be a sketchy choice for the Final 4 if it wasn't for their 5th ranked defense. I think Wake Forest's offense will be fine in the tournament, as long as they don't turn the ball over. They are also very athletic and have 3 possible future NBA players on their squad, which should increase their Final 4 chances despite their average offensive efficiency ranking.
Players Catching Wreck:
Hasheem Thabeet, UConn: The Huskies big fella has been playing solid ball of late and racked up a triple double against PC with 15 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 blocks. Hell, he even hit a jump shot against Louisville last night. Thabeet is going to cause opposing offenses problems in the NCAA Tournament as long as he stays out of foul trouble. Anything he adds on offense is just a bonus at this point.
Stats: 13.0 points, 10.1 rebounds, 4.0 blocks, 64.5% FG.
Unheralded Player of The Week:
Randall Hanke, Providence: This Providence big man doesn't see as much time on the court because of his suspect defense, but on the offensive end he is highly efficient. A great example of an unheralded player, Hanke shoots an incredible 70.9% from the field, which is best in the nation. Over the past two games, Hanke has averaged 14 points and 5 rebounds, while hitting 13 of 17 shots from the floor. He's part of the reason why the Friars are 27th in the nation in 2-point FG% at 52.9%. Now if only they could knock down some more threes.
Stats: 9.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 70.9% FG
Games To Checkout This Week (Overall Efficiency Rank):
Wednesday:
Duke(1) at Clemson(22)
USC(28) at UCLA(8)
Missouri(12) at Texas(26)
West Virginia(6) at Syracuse(33)
Wake Forest(10) at Miami(44)
Minnesota(34) at Michigan State(21)
Thursday:
Washington(14) at Cal(35)
Saturday:
Memphis(7) at Gonzaga(5)
Syracuse(33) at Villanova(16)
Notre Dame(48) at UCLA(8)
Miami(44) at Duke(1)
Sunday:
Purdue(11) at Illinois(24)
Monday:
West Virginia(6) at Pittsburgh(4)
Kansas(17) at Missouri(12)
Other Thoughts:
- Big Points: Utah Valley's Ryan Toolson dropped 63 points against Chicago State
and Kansas State's Denis Clemente dropped 44 points in an upset win over Texas. Good work fellas.
- Make sure you vote for who you think will be the National Champion this year in my poll on the top right side of this blog.
More: NCAA Basketball
For the record, your efficiency ranked showed no love to #2 Oklahoma. That's why I don't believe in 'em.
ReplyDelete-Ed.
Still time for them to jump into the Top 10...it's actually their defense keeping them out of the Top 10...they don't turn people over (238th) and believe it or not they also aren't that good on the defensive boards(155), which is shocking considering they have Griffen. They also suck at defending the 3, they rank 238th in that too.
ReplyDeleteDespite all that, they are still 47th overall in defense, so even though they are 12th overall in the rankings, I would consider them a Final 4 team. 12th isn't that far off.
In my mind, their combo of offense and defense puts them ahead of WV, Memphis, Louisville, and WF. Their all rated higher based on their defense, which is important but come tournament time you need to rely more on offense.