NCAA Basketball Weekly: Maryland Sleeper for Final 4, Kentucky, Bubble Watch, Who's In and Who's In Trouble

Here are the top 10 teams in Overall Efficiency:

1. Kansas .984 (315)
2. Duke .979 (76)
3. Syracuse .971 (239)
4. West Virginia .965 (162)
5. Wisconsin .962 (162)
6. Kentucky .957 (162)
7. Purdue .957 (308)
8. BYU .956 (178)
9. Maryland .956 (178)
10. Kansas St .955 (10)

Comments: Kentucky (6), as expected, is moving it's way up the rankings and now has a high enough Overall Efficiency ranking to match their Final 4 hype. Depending on how they finish and what bracket they end up in, I would expect to see them in the Final 4. I do not think they are good enough to win it all at this point though.

Maryland (9) is one team that nobody is talking about as a Final 4 contender. This is because they have just a 16-6 record. However, their Overall Efficiency ranking suggests they are much better than that. Maryland is the type of team that if you don't pay attention they can sneak up on you and ruin your bracket by making a run to the Final 4 and right now I like them as my "sleeper" pick to do that. They have a tough schedule the rest of the way, but it will also be a good test for us to see just how good they are. We all know about Greivis Vasquez (18.1 Points, 4.5 Rebounds, 6.3 assists), but they also have Sean Mosley (84th in the country in offensive efficiency), Landon Milbourne (14.5 Points & 5.4 Rebounds), sharp-shooter Eric Hayes (46.1% 3P%), and freshman big man Jordan Williams (8.4 Points & 7.9 Rebounds). If they finish strong then watch out for this team in the NCAA Tournament.

Bubble Watch:

I came up with a list of teams for my own little version of bracketology based on Overall Efficiency Rankings. For the auto-bids, I used the team with the best efficiency ranking and then I filled in the remaining spots by whatever teams had the highest efficiency rankings as well. I thought this would be a good way to identify which teams have some work to do before they secure an NCAA bid.

Check out the list below:

Rank	Team	Conference Champs
1	Kansas	Big 12 Conference
2	Duke	Atlantic Coast Conference
3	Syracuse	Big East Conference
4	West Virginia
5	Wisconsin	Big Ten Conference
6	Kentucky	Southeastern Conference
7	Purdue
8	Brigham Young	Mountain West Conference
9	Maryland
10	Kansas St.
11	Villanova
12	Missouri
13	Texas
14	Ohio St.
15	Georgetown
16	Baylor
17	California	Pac 10 Conference
18	Marquette
19	Vanderbilt
20	Georgia Tech
21	Clemson
22	Florida St.
23	Utah St.	Western Athletic Conference
24	Louisville
25	Tennessee
26	Michigan St.
27	Old Dominion	Colonial Athletic Association
28	Xavier	Atlantic 10 Conference
29	Butler	Horizon League
30	Pittsburgh
31	Wake Forest
32	Minnesota
33	Nevada Las Vegas
34	Arizona St.
35	Virginia Tech
36	Texas A&M
37	Texas El Paso	Conference USA
38	Mississippi St.
39	New Mexico
40	Mississippi
41	Dayton
42	Gonzaga	West Coast Conference
43	St. Mary's
44	Washington
45	Temple
46	Florida
47	Illinois
48	Northern Iowa	Missouri Valley Conference
49	Siena	Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
50	Kent St.	Mid American Conference
51	Montana	Big Sky Conference
52	Pacific	Big West Conference
53	Wofford	Southern Conference
54	Murray St.	Ohio Valley Conference
55	Western Kentucky	Sun Belt Conference
56	Cornell	Ivy League
57	Belmont	Atlantic Sun Conference
58	Sam Houston St.	Southland Conference
59	IUPUI	Summit League
60	Vermont	America East Conference
61	Lehigh	Patriot League
62	Coastal Carolina	Big South Conference
63	Morgan St.	Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference
64	Quinnipiac	Northeast Conference
65	Arkansas Pine Bluff	Southwestern Athletic Conference

I highlighted in red the teams I feel still have work to do. I began by highlighting every team between # 38-47. However, I eliminated Gonzaga and St. Mary's because I think they are both getting in. So that leaves Mississippi State, New Mexico, Mississippi, Dayton, Washington, Temple, Florida, & Illinois. Pretty solid choices for "bubble teams" because one bad losing streak would definitely put each team in jeopardy.

I then added projected conference champions UTEP and Old Dominion because I think there will be some doubt of whether they get in or not if they finish the season poorly and fail to win an auto-bid. That gives me 10 true bubble teams.

However, there are also 4 other teams, who have solid Overall Efficiency rankings, but I feel like they are underrated in the eyes of the public right now and would probably not be locks to make the tournament if it started right now: Marquette (17), Louisville (24), Minnesota (32), & Arizona State (34).

That leaves me with essentially 14 at-large bids that are currently available and that's only if some team doesn't come out of nowhere to steal a conference tournament in one of the larger conferences.

In addition, to the 14 bubble teams already listed, there are several other teams that clearly have work to do if they want to make the NCAA Tournament. These are the teams that I feel are in serious trouble right now and probably have to win at least 75% if their remaining games and pick-up some quality wins along the way. Here's a list of those teams who will be in the mix but still have lots of work to do (overall efficiency rank in parentheses):

VCU (49)
Virginia (50)
Memphis (51)
Northeastern (53)
UConn (54)
Richmond (55)
San Diego State (56)
Miami (58)
UAB (59)
Oklahoma State (60)
Northwestern (62)
UNC (63)
South Florida (65)
Rhode Island (66)
Cincinnati (73)
Notre Dame (74)
Arizona (75)
Charlotte (86)

Last year, Minnesota (45), Michigan (49), Texas A&M (52), Maryland (54), & Dayton (83) had the lowest Overall Efficiency rankings of any of the at-large teams and Georgetown (26), Washington State (32), San Diego State (34), Notre Dame (37), New Mexico (38) had the highest Overall Efficiency rankings of the teams who did not secure an at-large bid. So it's entirely possible that a UConn (54), UNC (63), URI (66), etc. could get an at-large bid over someone like a Louisville (24) or Minnesota (32).

Expect more updates like this now that we are getting closer to the NCAA Tournament.

More: NCAA Basketball