Thursday, September 25, 2008

Mark Reynolds Is The King of The Whiff


Arizona Diamondback's third baseman Mark Reynolds set the single season strikeout mark today by striking out twice; giving him 201 strikeouts on the season. Reynolds broke the record that was previously held by Ryan Howard, who had 199 strikeouts just last season. This is the third time in the last 4 seasons that someone has broken the single season strikeout mark.

Here are the top 30 single season strikeout totals:

As you can see the top 6 totals for most strikeouts in a season all came within the last 5 seasons. In fact, out of the top 30 all-time single season strikeout totals, 18 of those seasons have occurred since the year 2000. So the question is why in the over 100 years of baseball are most of the highest strikeout totals come within the last 8 seasons?

Well here are the reasons I believe that the strikeout totals have increased over the last 8 seasons(in no particular order):

The Steroids Era: During the late 90's and early part of the 2000's, steroids were at their peak use and this meant that there was an added emphasis on the home run. There was less use for contact players like David Eckstein, who were scrappy and always got their bat on the ball, and this led to teams playing the more powerful players who also tended to strike out more. Even though there is now testing for steroids today, there is still an emphasis on the home run as the best way for teams to score runs. This is slowly changing as you see teams like the Rays and Angels play small ball to score runs and win, but for now that change has not fully been adopted by all teams and certainly every team has their own style of play. You can still expect a couple teams to run out power guys and deal with the strike outs that come with them. Some examples of this are the Diamondbacks and Marlins, who rank # 1 and 2 in strikeouts in MLB. While the Marlins offset their strikeouts by ranking 3rd overall in home runs, the Diamondbacks are less powerful and rank only 19th in home runs.

The Rise of On Base Percentage: More teams are becoming aware of on-base percentage as an effective way to measure a players contribution to scoring runs and winning ball games; making them less inclined to worry about strikeouts. A player who strikes out a lot like Adam Dunn or Jason Giambi but also walks a lot is less likely to be criticized in today's game for striking out so much. In the past, these types of players would be frowned upon and would be asked to drive runners in instead of just simply trying to get on base. This is definitely a dynamic that has changed today's game. A team who follows this philosophy is the Oakland A's, who lead the AL in strikeouts but are also 9th in walks. The player who is the best example of this is Jack Cust of the A's, who already has the 6th highest single season strike out total this year with 192, but also leads the AL with 108 walks. Also, the Red Sox and Yankees teams that have won World Series titles the last 12 years have been known as patient teams who get on base by a high number of walks. Many teams have tried to duplicate their model of success and sometimes they will deal with players who strikeout a lot to try and stick to that model.

Expansion: Back in 1970 when Bobby Bonds was setting the single season strike out record with 189 whiffs, there were only 24 teams in baseball and no DH in the AL. Now we have 30 teams and a DH in the AL. The 6 new teams accounts for over 60 extra players in the majors who get to hit on a every day basis. With the talent more spread out, it's possible a team may have to play a couple players with high strikeout totals because they do not have a better option on their roster. Back in 1970, it's possible that a player with a high strikeout total may have been benched for a better option. This is why you get to see Jose Hernandez striking out 188 times in 2002.

Increased Emphasis on Bullpens: Bullpens are a bigger piece of the game then they ever were before. This means that batters more often than in the past are facing pitchers who are coming into a game strong and with their best stuff. Many teams have specialists to pitch the 7th, 8th and, 9th innings and these relievers are typically power pitchers who strike out a high number of batters. In the past, hitters may be facing a tiring starter late in the game and would probably have less chance of striking out. Thing are even worse for left handed batters, who typically struggle with left handed pitching, and teams generally carry a left hand reliever who sometimes will only pitch to one batter in a game. Strong bullpens increase the odds of getting batters out and since most strong bullpens have power pitchers, there is going to be an increase in strikeouts late in games.

More: MLB

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