MLB Postseason - NLCS Preview

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies:

Offensive Ratings:

PHI: 4.93 runs per game/214 HR/.255 AVG/.332 OBP/.438 SLG/.770 OPS/103 OPS+/136 SB

LAD: 4.32 runs per game/137 HR/.264 AVG/.333 OBP/.399 SLG/.732 OPS/95 OPS+/126 SB

Pitching Ratings:

PHI: 4.20 runs per game/3.89 ERA/115 ERA+

LAD: 4.00 runs per game/3.68 ERA/120 ERA+

Defensive Ratings:

PHI: 90 Errors/.985 Fielding %/.695 Defensive Efficiency

LAD: 101 Errors/.984 Fielding %/.690 Defensive Efficiency

Comments From the NLDS:

- The Dodgers have the best pitching staff in the NL with a 120 ERA+.

- The Phillies rank third in the NL with a 115 ERA+.

- The Phillies bullpen is exceptional, led by closer Brad Lidge.

- The Phillies' Cole Hamels is definitely a big time pitcher, but the key is going to be Brett Myers who had an excellent second half of the season.

Comments on the NLCS: Looking at the stats, the pitching staffs between the Phillies and Dodgers are pretty even, so we can probably consider that area a wash right now. However, I have to mention that Derek Lowe, Cole Hamles, Chad Billingsley, and Brett Myers have all pitched great so far. So I would imagine there are not going to be a lot of runs scored in this series and you would think that the better hitting team will come out on top. If you look at the full season, it would appear that the Phillies are the better hitting team, but that is only if you factor in how horrible the Dodgers offense was before Manny Ramirez joined them in August. Don't forget they were without Rafael Furcal for most of the season too and now have him back. If you take the second half hitting stats of both teams, you see that the Dodgers were actually a comparable hitting team to the Phillies:

LAD: 4.62 runs per game/.279 AVG/72 HR/298 RBI/.350 OBP/.434 SLG/.784 OPS/40 SB

PHI: 4.81 runs per game/.252 AVG/82 HR/301 RBI/.328 OBP/.432 SLG/.760 OPS/55 SB

The Dodgers are just a different team since Manny Ramirez joined their lineup and the addition of Furcal adds to lineup even more. Manny Ramirez is the all-time playoff leader in HR with 26 and certainly has proven he can handle the pressure of October. I was skeptical about the hitting of the young player in the Dodgers lineup going into the playoffs and while they didn't hit for a particularly high average, they still proved me wrong coming up with several big hits. So look for Manny, Furcal, Russell Martin, and Casey Blake to lead for the Dodgers offensively.

The Phillies are a team that is very dependent on the HR and I think that is going to hurt them in this series. It is also worth noting the career playoff batting averages of Ryan Howard (.217), Chase Utley (.154), and Pat Burrell (.217) are not strong. Certainly the Phillies will need those 3 guys to start hitting better in the middle of their lineup. If not then they will have to rely on Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, and Jason Werth to get things done for them.

When all is said and done I am going to take the Dodgers to win.

Put On Notice for Game 1: Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Pat Burrell