MLB Postseason Predictions, Analysis, and Awards

I got together Ed from Ed The Sports Fan and Joe from What's The 401?!?! to make some predictions for the MLB postseason and also who we think should win all the major awards. You can check out all the predictions below:

Joe had a nice post on why he picked each award winner that you can check out here and here is a sample below:

National League MVP: Albert Pujols - St. Louis Cardinals

The selection of Pujols is really a no brainer with the only real competition coming from Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard. It’s possible that the voters could elect Howard with his gaudy home run (48) and RBI (146) totals, his torrid close to the season which helped put the Phillies in the playoffs and the fact that his team actually made the playoffs. All three of these factors tend to hold sway with MVP voters, however, it will be a travesty if anybody prevents Pujols from taking home his second MVP award. A closer look at the statistics between the two slugging first baseman reveal that it’s really not even a contest.

Pujols - 187 H, 100 R, 37 HR, 116 RBI, .357 AVG, .462 OBA, .653 SLG, 1.115 OPS, 190 OPS+
Howard - 153 H, 105 R, 48 HR, 146 RBI, .251 AVG, .339 OBA, .543 SLG, .882 OPS, 123 OPS+

Despite hitting more home runs than Pujols, Howard slugs almost 100 points lower and has a much lower OPS and OPS+, not to mention the 199 strike outs to Albert’s 54. Yes, Howard’s surge late in the year is a big reason that the Phillies are in the playoffs, but where would the Cards be without Pujols? As it is, St. Louis contended in the NL Central far longer than anticipated. Besides, for the first part of the season Chase Utley was widely considered to be the Phillies MVP. Howard may be the team’s second half MVP, but when it’s all said and done game 1 counts the same as game 162. Despite the tendency of voters to give more credence to second half stats (which is the reason Carlos Delgado’s name has come up in MVP discussions after having a horrendous first half), this award is given on the merits of a full season. That’s why it goes to Pujols.

Runner Up: Ryan Howard - Philadelphia Phillies

Here is why Ed believes the Tampa Bay Rays will win the World Series:

I can't talk myself into picking anyone else. Boston just looks and feels different without Manny. The White Sox's bullpen is anemic, and they cannot manufacture a run to save their life. The Angels were my other choice, but if Lackey's not pitching like an ace, does anyone else strike any fear into a hitter? Okay, what about the National League? The Phillies have 2 pitchers, Cole Hamels and Brad Lidge. You trust Brett Myers? 138-year old Jamie Moyer? Can you name anyone in their bullpen? Poor Milwaukee, CC Sabathia is my dude for life, however they have NO BULLPEN WHATSOEVER, so I can't totally buy into them. LA? Well, I'm a HUGE FAN of Man-Ram. Plus, Matt Kemp reminds me of a young Bobby Bonilla. They have 3 above-average pitchers and they have Joe Torre in their dugout. The Cubs...sigh, I dunno man. Their bats in the lineup are intriguing, but if I was a pitcher the only hitters that would really scare me are Aramis Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano. Their pitchers? Big Z's last couple of outings: got destroyed, no hitter, got destroyed, got destroyed. Not feeling that. I don't know what to think about Dempster, he's a converted relief pitcher who's now doing well in the starter's role. I don't trust him. Harden? Either a no-hitter or his arm will fall off.

Who does that leave? Tampa Bay. The have 3 quality starters in Scott Kazmir, James Shields, and Matt Garza. A lineup who can get the big hit and manufacturer a run. The bullpen has quality arms, and they have a COOL ASS MANAGER in Joe Maddon. Plus, they have no fear because they're young and dumb. Carl Crawford's coming back and if Troy Percival is fully recovered, then I think it could happen.

I say why not, go Tampa. Bring it home and shove it down the big money throats of Boston and New York.

Ed definitely makes some good points and his scenerio certainly could happen with the Rays winning the World Series. So far he was right about Dempster, who put up a stinker last night. The young bats came through for the Dodgers and Derek Lowe made Alfonso Soriano and the rest of the Cubs offense look silly. Big Z needs to come up big in Game 2 for the Cubbies and Ed is right about him getting destroyed lately. They face off against Chad Billingsley too who is no slouch. Here are his stats on the season: 16-10/3.14 ERA/201 SO/141 ERA+. He actually has been their best starter this season, so Big Z better bring his Big A game or the Cubbies fans are going to be tearing down Wrigley Field.

Despite all this, your boy Antone is a man of honor, and since I picked the Cubs (and Angels) before last nights debacle I am going to stick to my picks. However, you can best believe I pull rabbits out the hat, tricks up my sleeves, which means I will be breaking things down as they go. Predictions only go so far and sometimes you don't realize how wrong you are until you see a game or two played. Like right now, if I had to put money on it I would say that the Red Sox and Dodgers would be squaring off in the World Series, but you know I don't like to make hasty decisions, so I'm not going to blow things out of proportion just because of what happened in Game 1. In fact, there have been numerous times when a team has lost Game 1 of a five game series and came back to win the series and in some of these cases they later went on to win the World Series. So I'm going to stick to my guns and stay with my original picks. Winning Game 1 is certainly an advantage, but it doesn't mean the end yet.

Here is why I had originally picked the Cubs and Angels in the World Series:

Wow, looking at the stats, the Red Sox are the better team almost across the board. It's hard not to pick the Red Sox, but no AL team has made the World Series in the past 13 years with a losing road record. The Angels are the only AL team in the playoffs with a winning road record, so I am going to roll with them to beat the Red Sox, even though I must admit that the Red Sox look like the better team on paper. I think the Angels have a better bullpen than the Red Sox and the addition of Mark Teixeira has improved the offense.

Comments: Ok, here is the deal: I completely forgot that Vladimir Guerrero has been pulling an A-Rod in the postseason going something 1 for his last 49 before getting two hits last night. Seriously, what is up with that? Then I must have forgotten how many horrible hitters the Angels have in their lineup like Gary Matthews and Erick Aybar, seriously these guys are not going to hit the Red Sox pitching. Put Vlad back in right and DH that Kendry Morales guy who hit a rope off of Papelbon last night. Also, I said Mark Teixeira has improved the offense, but the key is going to be Chone Figgins who killed them last night by going 0-5 in the leadoff spot. He needs to get on base. Believe it or not, Garrett Anderson, Mark Teixeira, Vlad, and Torii Hunter all had 2 hits last night, but the Angels were still only able to manage an unearned run. So that is an encouraging sign for the Angels in a way, because my guess is that if those guys combine for 8 hits then on most nights they will win. Howie Kendrick needs to pick up the slack too because he went 0-4 and left 6 guys on base. That's the key to your game last night right there. I'm skeptical about Ervin Santana coming up big tonight, but he has been solid all season long: 16-7/3.49 ERA/214 SO/125 ERA+. Dice-K goes for the Red Sox, but he has struggled to get past the 5th and 6th inning when he pitches because of his control problems. The Angels have to make Dice-K work tonight because if they don't then he will mow them down and my guess would be that Red Sox would sweep. I'm going to be naming players from the teams I picked to win in each series who are going to be put on notice because they need to come up big in an upcoming game, so check for that below.

Put On Notice: Ervin Santana, Chone Figgins, Howie Kendrick

Here's something you might not have known: The Dodgers have the best pitching staff in the NL with a 120 ERA+. Unfortunately for them, the Cubs are second with a 117 ERA+. The Cubs also have the second best offense in the NL with a 109 OPS+. I know the Dodgers are better offensively now that they have Manny in the lineup, but I don't think Lou Pinella is going to let Manny Ramirez beat him and I don't think the young players on the Dodgers are going to step it up. I expect this to be a tough series for the Cubs, but they will pull it out in the end. I think Alfonso Soriano will come up big for the Cubs in this series.

Comments: Okay, so Soriano went 0-5 last night with a couple K's, but you notice I said Soriano would come up big for the Cubs and not that he would have a big series. What's the difference you ask? Well, I feel like when the game is on the line, even if Soriano is hitting like crap in the series that he is going to get the big hit that helps the Cubs win the series. This man loves the spotlight: Game 7 2001 against the D'Backs hits a big home run off of Curt Schilling to put the Yankees up 1-0, the man always seems to hit home runs in the All-Star Game(2002, 2004, 2007), and he just happens to be one of the Cubs best hitters with runners in scoring position(10 HR/55 RBI/.975 OPS). So yeah, Soriano is a horrible postseason hitter with a career .225 average, but I think he'll come through when the Cubs need him most. Truth be told though Game 2 sits on the big arm of Carlos Zambrano.

Put On Notice: Carlos Zambrano

Here is why I picked the Rays and Phillies to win their Divisional Series:

Pitching and defense win championships and the Rays certainly have both. The White Sox rely too much on the home run to be a productive offense in the playoffs. I'm a little worried about the Rays offense once they go up against the Angels or Red Sox, but against the White Sox they should have enough to get it done. One thing to worry about with the Rays is that Scott Kazmir has not been pitching well lately, so you might want to keep an eye on him in this series.
Comments: I agree with Ed that Carlos Pena will be the man for the Rays. I also think Jason Barlett will do his best Mark Lemke/Craig Counsell/David Eckstein impression for the Rays and have a big series. The Rays bullpen is going to have to show that they are for real and not just a regular season fluke. David Price will certainly be counted on to come up big for the Rays as well.

Put On Notice: The Rays bullpen

C.C. Sabathia has been great for the Brewers this season, but contrary to popular belief he can't pitch every game of this series. I think the Brewers will struggle in the games that Sabathia doesn't start, especially if Ben Sheets isn't healthy. I was surprised to see that the Phillies have such a good pitching staff, ranking third in the NL with a 115 ERA+. Most of that is because of their exceptional bullpen, which is led by closer Brad Lidge. In the starting rotation, Cole Hamels is definitely a big time pitcher, but the key is going to be Brett Myers who had an excellent second half of the season. I think the Phillies will take this series

Comments: The Brewers defense lost this game for them when Rickie Weeks and Mike Cameron made 2 errors that led to a 3 run inning for the Phillies. The Brewers are probably the worst defensive team in the playoffs and this is the time of year when things like that get exposed and cost you ball games. The Brewers have C.C. Sabathia going in Game 2, which of course gives them a chance to win, but they are going to have to steal another game before Game 5 to have any chance to win this series and I don't see it happening.

Put On Notice: The Brewers defense and bullpen

More: MLB MVP Race - Albert Pujols & Kevin Youkilis