MLB Postseason - World Series Preview

Philadelphia Phillies vs Tampa Bay Rays:

Offensive Ratings:

PHI: 4.93 runs per game/214 HR/.255 AVG/.332 OBP/.438 SLG/.770 OPS/103 OPS+/136 SB

TBR: 4.78 runs per game/180 HR/.260 AVG/.340 OBP/.422 SLG/.762 OPS/103 OPS+/142 SB

Pitching Ratings:

PHI: 4.20 runs per game/3.89 ERA/115 ERA+

TBR: 4.14 runs per game/3.82 ERA/114 ERA+

Defensive Ratings:

PHI: 90 Errors/.985 Fielding %/.695 Defensive Efficiency

TBR: 90 Errors/.985 Fielding %/.708 Defensive Efficiency

World Series Comments:

It's downright scary how similar these two teams are statistically. Both have a 103 OPS+ on offense, with about the same amount of runs scored a game, similar batting averages, and about the same amount of speed on the basepaths. The Phillies had slightly more power than the Rays, but you wouldn't be able to tell that from the postseason, because B.J. Upton and crew have been knocking home runs like it's routine. The Rays have out homered the Phillies 22 to 10 in the playoffs so far. In fact, the Rays had 16 home runs against the Red Sox in their series, which is pretty incredible and also a record. The previous record was held by the Red Sox who hit 12 home runs in 2003 against the Yankees. I seriously would not want to be facing the Rays lineup right now and I'm sure they will continue to hit the ball against the Phillies. I also like the Rays bench more than the Phillies. With a combination of Rocco Baldelli, Gabe Gross, Cliff Floyd, and Willy Aybar on the bench depending on who starts, the Rays have several players they can turn to in different situations. Ben Zobrist and Fernando Perez also add to the Rays deep bench. I do expect Matt Stairs to possibly DH in Game 2 against the right handed Jamie Shields. Greg Dobbs is a solid bat of the bench and will probably get the start in Game 1 versus the left handed Scott Kazmir. For the Rays, expect to see righties Rocco Baldelli and Willy Aybar against Cole Hamels in Game 1 as well.

The pitching on the Rays and Phillies is even as well. The Rays had a 114 ERA+ versus a 115 ERA+ for the Phillies. However, it should also be noted that the Rays not only play in the American League and face a DH on a daily basis, but they also played in the AL East, which has 3 of the top 7 offenses in the AL. Not to short change the Phillies, who play in the NL East where the Mets, Marlins, and Braves were in the Top 5 offensively in the NL. If you break things down, I think the Rays have more depth in their starting pitching and the Phillies might have a stronger bullpen. I'm not completely sold that the Phillies have a better bullpen though, because I think Joe Maddon has some good arms out there with David Price, Edwin Jackson, and J.P Howell. Certainly Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour, and Chad Bradford are capable as well. The biggest advantage the Phillies have in their bullpen is Brad Lidge as their closer. Obviously if the Rays pitchers go deep into games, they won't have to rely on their bullpen as much, which is why I think they have the advantage pitching wise.

Moving on to the defense, again the two teams are equal with a .985 fielding percentage. If we break it down, I think the Rays are better defensively in the outfield than the Phillies. With Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton, and either Rocco Baldelli or Gabe Gross in their outfield they pretty much have a CF at almost every position. The Phillies have Pat Burrell in left who is clearly below average defensively because he does not cover a lot of ground out there. Victorino and Worth are solid, but because of Burrell you have to give the advantage to the Rays in the outfield.

In the infield, Longoria is a great fielder, but Pedro Feliz is underrated having made only 8 errors on the season. I think Longoria probably makes more spectacular plays than Feliz can, but Feliz is certainly solid defensively. Carlos Pena is clearly a superior defensive first baseman compared to Ryan Howard who is a below average defender, so that's an easy one to call. Believe it or not, the Phillies are actually stronger up the middle than the Rays, even though Bartlett and Iwamura are above average defenders. Chase Utley has incredible range at second base and is probably the best defensive 2B in baseball. Jimmy Rollins had an excellent season at SS making only 7 errors on the season and also showing good range. The Phillies defense is stronger up the middle, but they also have Ryan Howard, so I think the infield defense for both teams is about even. Behind the plate, the edge goes to Dioner Navarro over Carlos Ruiz because he threw out a higher percentage of base runners and 20 less stolen bases.

I think this has the makings to be a good series, but I still like the Rays starting pitching over the Phillies. If I'm the Rays, Brett Myers, Joe Blanton, and especially Jamie Moyer do not scare me on the mound. I think that will be the difference in this series, especially with the Rays swinging the hot bats. Also, the long layoff for the Phillies could hurt them in Game 1 as it has some teams in the past. In the end, I'm going to have to roll with the Rays once again.

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