Tuesday, December 9, 2008

NCAA Basketball Weekly: Top 10 Teams, Wake Forest Dunkin' Deacons, Missouri Tigers, James Harden, & More


I am going to do my best to stop neglecting college basketball and start doing at least one post a week touching on different topics. Part of the reason I haven't been blogging about the season is that I don't really think the non-conference games are all that important at this time of the year. Most teams are still searching for their identity at this point in the season and I don't think we can learn too much about most teams.

That being said I'm still going to look at the overall efficiency rankings for both offense and defense that I used last year to predict 7 of 8 Elite Eight teams, 3 of 4 Final Four teams, the two teams that made it to the championship, and the eventual winner. If you just started reading this blog, then I suggest you click the link above and check out all the analysis I did last year that helped me do a pretty damn good job at figuring out who the best teams were. To be honest, I had to refresh my memory on the topic myself.

I'm also going to take a weekly look at some teams to keep an eye on as potential sleepers and players who are wreaking havoc out there on the court.

Overall Efficiency:

Forget your polls, here are the top 10 teams in Overall Efficiency this season, but remember that teams play a lot of easy non-conference games early in the season, which means these numbers will change drastically as the season goes on. For that reason I also included the strength of schedule rank in parentheses. Last year Kansas had a .992 overall efficiency, which was by far the highest of the last 4 years, so you can use that as a measuring stick throughout the season.

1. North Carolina .995 (35)
2. Georgetown .995 (56)
3. Gonzaga .992 (12)
4. Pittsburgh .991 (100)
5. Louisville .986 (279)
6. Ohio State .983 (150)
7. Duke .980 (68)
8. Texas .977 (107)
9. Kansas .977 (228)
10. Tennessee .977 (29)

UConn is ranked 2nd in the actual polls, but in overall efficiency they are ranked only 16th at this point, so they might be slightly overrated. Likewise, Georgetown ranked 19th, Ohio State ranked 21st, and Kansas ranked 25th look to be underrated at this point in the season, since they are all in the top 10 in overall efficiency.

The only teams to show up in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency are UNC, Pitt, and Georgetown. I'm a little skeptical of Pitt at this point though because they are ranked 100th in strength of schedule right now. I expect them to drop out of the top 10 in one if not both of those categories.

Teams To Keep An Eye On:

Wake Forest: I don't know how good this team is going to be but they certainly look like they are going to be a very entertaining team to watch. The Deamon Deacons of Wake Forest have officially been renamed the Dunkin' Deacons by me after these three impressive dunks by their three best players:

James Johnson Dunks on Indiana
Stats: 14.8 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 2.0 steals, 1.4 blocks, 41.7% 3FG

Al-Farouq Aminu Dunks On UTEP
Stats: 12.3 points, 9.0 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.5 blocks

Jeff Teague Dunks On Cal State Fullerton
Stats: 20.6 points, 4.0 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 2.3 steals, 57.1% 3FG

The Dunkin' Deacons rank just 31st in overall efficiency despite being ranked 11th in the overall polls. The reason for their lower ranking is because their offense is ranked just 77th overall in offensive efficiency, but there is still plenty of time in the season for them to improve on that, especially since they have three very efficient offensive players . They do rank 15th overall in defensive efficiency, so it seems like they have no problems on that end of the floor. I definitely think they are a team to keep an eye on this season.

Missouri: Missouri is coming off of a 93-66 blowout win of a pretty decent Cal team that is ranked 46th in overall efficiency. They also beat USC(34th) and lost by only 4 to 10th ranked Xavier(28). Meanwhile, the Tigers are not even ranked in the actual polls, but are 11th in overall efficiency. The reason for that is they are ranked 4th in offensive efficiency, where they are led by two senior forwards:

DeMarre Carroll: 18.6 points, 7.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.8 steals, 60.6% FG

Leo Lyons: 17.9 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.92 assists, 1.5 steals, 55.4% FG

Other positives with this team: They don't turn the ball over, they rank 7th overall in turnover %. They rank 26th overall in offensive rebounding %.

Some negatives: They aren't great at shooting the three, just 35.4%, which is good for 120th overall and they are horrible at shooting free throws, just 63.9%, which is 261st in the country.

Players Catching Wreck:

Stephen Curry, Davidson: What more can you say about Stephen Curry? He's so nice with his that he has to do things like drop 44 points in front of Lebron to get us to be impressed with him anymore. Curry is going to be a problem all year and should lead Davidson back to the tournament with ease.

Stats: 31.3 points, 2.7 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 3.0 steals, 50.4% FG , 40.9% 3FG

James Harden, Arizona State: James Harden is an absolute beast this season after what was an impressive freshman season. Right now he is projected to be the # 2 pick in the 2009 NBA Draft.

Stats: 25.5 points, 7.3 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.6 steals, 57.8% FG, 50.0 3FG%

Blake Griffin, Oklahoma: I just mentioned that James Harden is projected to be the #2 pick in the 2009 NBA Draft, but Griffin is projected as the #1 pick, which should tell you just how good he is. He reminds me of a more athletic Carlos Boozer for some reason that seems to be the comparison that always pops in my head. He could use some work on his free throws, but for now look for him to dominant at Oklahoma.

Stats: 24.8 points, 16.3 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 2.1 steals, 1.1 blocks, 66.7% FG

More: NCAA Basketball

2 comments:

  1. I was going to be REALLY UPSET if you didn't mention Blake Griffin, i'm just saying. Nice post.

    -Ed.
    www.edthesportsfan.com

    ReplyDelete
  2. I only mentioned him so you wouldn't have your feelings hurt haha nah just playing...but yeah I impressed myself with this post haha

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