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Before the start of last season, Ed The Sports Fan had a couple of us put together a list of the Top 10 NFL backs. He had asked us to rank them again after the season, but instead chose to post his own list of the Top 10 RB's of All-Time, so I've been holding on to my list since then and I've finally decided to let it loose since college basketball is over and there isn't much else to post.Now the list is based upon two factors: past performance and what I expect out of each back going forward. I almost choose my list as if I was a GM of a team and try to balance to past performance with risk/reward going forward for each back.
Since I take in past performance, I tend to underrate the younger backs who don't have as much of a track record. I mean there's no gaurantee that DeAngelo Williams, Michael Turner, Steve Slaton, Chris Johnson, and Matt Forte will turn out to have careers like Barry Sanders, Emmitt Smith, or LT instead of careers like Barry Foster, Terrell Davis, and Priest Holmes. I can almost guarantee that at least 2 of those 5 backs don't match the seasons they had last year, which is why you won't see them moved up my Top 10 list until they prove they can do it year in and year out.
1. Adrian Peterson: He's the most consistent back right now and the fumbling is the only thing keeping him from being the clear cut # 1 for years to come. I think we all are still waiting for him to have that monster season with 1,800 plus yards and close to 20 TD's.
2. Clinton Portis: He wore down at the end of the season, but still managed almost 1500 yards and 9 TD. Consistency is what gets him this high on the list, because he is not a extremely dynamic back.
3. Brian Westbrook: Still one of the most dynamic players in the NFL and always a threat to score, when he doesn't play the Eagles are not a playoff team. Not a natural threat to kill you running the ball, but running/receiving combo is tough to beat.
4. Steven Jackson: Health is the only thing keeping him from being higher on this list, but still has 4 consecutive 1000 yard seasons. I do wonder what he would do behind a good offensive line. His underrated receiving gives him the edge over Jacobs.....for now.
5. Brandon Jacobs: Back to back seasons with 1,000 yards and 5 yards per carry. He may not get the carries of a # 1 back, but there arent many running backs I'd want more than him in a big game. Should see more carries now that Ward signed with Tampa Bay.
6. DeAngelo Williams: Averaged 5.0 & 5.5 yards per carry the last two seasons, had 20 TD this season. Looks like the real deal to me. Tore it up in the second half of the season (993 yards and 15 touchdown in the last eight games) and could move higher with a repeat performance. He could possibly be one of the top 2 backs in the NFL if continues to dominant next season.
7. Michael Turner: Just missed 1,700 yards and had 18 TD, you don't get these kind of numbers unless you are the real deal. He is somewhat hit or miss though from game to game though, but that is really the only negative. Similar to Williams for that fact that he could move higher with another repeat performance. Could possibly be a top 5 back after next season.
8. LaDainian Tomlinson: 5.2, 4.7, 3.8, LT's yards per carry the last three seasons, he's on the decline and I don't think he should be any higher than this on the list even if he bounces back with a decent season. History shows he won't be the same back for the rest of his career.
9. Marshawn Lynch: This is where you start to see a drop off in the backs. Lynch didn't have as big of a year as I thought he would, but he was still solid. Probably gets passed by one of the rookie backs(Slaton, Johnson, Forte) next season, especially since he will be suspended for the first few games. The presence of T.O. in the passing game may help him some, but Fred Jackson could also steal a decent chunk of his carries.
10. Frank Gore: Another boring 1,000 yard season for Gore and I was tempted to put Slaton or Johnson ahead of him, but since they are rookies I'll keep him here for now. Similar to Lynch because he will probably get passed by one of the rookie backs next season. you could flip him with Lynch and I wouldn't argue.
Next in line:
11. Steve Slaton
12. Chris Johnson
13. Marion Barber
14. Matt Forte
15. Thomas Jones
16. Willie Parker
17. Larry Johnson
18. Maurice Jones Drew
19. Derrick Ward
20. Jamal Lewis
21. Jonathan Stewart
22. Darren McFadden
23. Ryan Grant
24. Joseph Addai
2. Clinton Portis: He wore down at the end of the season, but still managed almost 1500 yards and 9 TD. Consistency is what gets him this high on the list, because he is not a extremely dynamic back.
3. Brian Westbrook: Still one of the most dynamic players in the NFL and always a threat to score, when he doesn't play the Eagles are not a playoff team. Not a natural threat to kill you running the ball, but running/receiving combo is tough to beat.
4. Steven Jackson: Health is the only thing keeping him from being higher on this list, but still has 4 consecutive 1000 yard seasons. I do wonder what he would do behind a good offensive line. His underrated receiving gives him the edge over Jacobs.....for now.
5. Brandon Jacobs: Back to back seasons with 1,000 yards and 5 yards per carry. He may not get the carries of a # 1 back, but there arent many running backs I'd want more than him in a big game. Should see more carries now that Ward signed with Tampa Bay.
6. DeAngelo Williams: Averaged 5.0 & 5.5 yards per carry the last two seasons, had 20 TD this season. Looks like the real deal to me. Tore it up in the second half of the season (993 yards and 15 touchdown in the last eight games) and could move higher with a repeat performance. He could possibly be one of the top 2 backs in the NFL if continues to dominant next season.
7. Michael Turner: Just missed 1,700 yards and had 18 TD, you don't get these kind of numbers unless you are the real deal. He is somewhat hit or miss though from game to game though, but that is really the only negative. Similar to Williams for that fact that he could move higher with another repeat performance. Could possibly be a top 5 back after next season.
8. LaDainian Tomlinson: 5.2, 4.7, 3.8, LT's yards per carry the last three seasons, he's on the decline and I don't think he should be any higher than this on the list even if he bounces back with a decent season. History shows he won't be the same back for the rest of his career.
9. Marshawn Lynch: This is where you start to see a drop off in the backs. Lynch didn't have as big of a year as I thought he would, but he was still solid. Probably gets passed by one of the rookie backs(Slaton, Johnson, Forte) next season, especially since he will be suspended for the first few games. The presence of T.O. in the passing game may help him some, but Fred Jackson could also steal a decent chunk of his carries.
10. Frank Gore: Another boring 1,000 yard season for Gore and I was tempted to put Slaton or Johnson ahead of him, but since they are rookies I'll keep him here for now. Similar to Lynch because he will probably get passed by one of the rookie backs next season. you could flip him with Lynch and I wouldn't argue.
Next in line:
11. Steve Slaton
12. Chris Johnson
13. Marion Barber
14. Matt Forte
15. Thomas Jones
16. Willie Parker
17. Larry Johnson
18. Maurice Jones Drew
19. Derrick Ward
20. Jamal Lewis
21. Jonathan Stewart
22. Darren McFadden
23. Ryan Grant
24. Joseph Addai
25. Willis McGahee
26. Le'ron McClain
27. Kevin Smith
28. Ronnie Brown
29. Reggie Bush
26. Le'ron McClain
27. Kevin Smith
28. Ronnie Brown
29. Reggie Bush
30. Darren Sproles
31. LenDale White
32. Fred Taylor
33. Warrick Dunn
34. Justin Fargas
35. Edgerrin James
Previously: Top 10 RB's In The NFL - 2008
More: NFL
31. LenDale White
32. Fred Taylor
33. Warrick Dunn
34. Justin Fargas
35. Edgerrin James
Previously: Top 10 RB's In The NFL - 2008
More: NFL
Brandon Jacobs is way too high on this list, Turner and Williams had one breakout season and I'm not sure they belong, Marshawn Lynch and Steven Jackson might be too high too. Marion Barber, Willie Parker, and Maurice Jones-Drew should all be higher, maybe all top 10. Larry Johnson is too low too. Other than that, your list is great.
ReplyDelete(lol)
-Ed.
Here's my issue with these guys:
ReplyDeleteParker: only 7 TDs the last two seasons and averaging about 4.0 yards a carry.
Barber: In 4 seasons has never ran for more than 975 yards or had more than 238 carries. He's not a full time back so I can't put him in the Top 10. Plus I think Felix Jones is going to be stealing some of his carries next season.
Jones-Drew: Never ran for more than 941 yards or had more than 197 carries in a season. Not a full time back. Of these three guys he has the best chance to make the Top 10 since he should get more carries now with Fred Taylor gone.
I was thinking of bumping down Steven Jackson but the guys below him haven't been doing it long enough(except for LT who's probably washed up)...he'll probably drop next year though.
Turner and Williams were solid in part time duty and then had monster seasons in full time duty, so I gave them the benefit of the doubt that they can keep it up.
Jacobs has back to back 1,000 yard seasons and 19 TDs the last two seasons. I think he has more upside than LT, Lynch, Gore, or Barber too. I could see him getting a 1,500+ yard season this year. He could easily be off the list next year too.
If I had to guess who the Top 10 just for next season would be I would go with(in no order):
Adrian Peterson
Clinton Portis
Brian Westbrook
Chris Johnson
Steven Jackson
Michael Turner
DeAngelo Williams
Steve Slaton
Brandon Jacobs
Maurice Jones-Drew