2009 NBA Finals: Los Angeles Lakers vs Orlando Magic - Series Preview

(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs (3) Orlando Magic

Offense Eff.: Los Angeles (3) 109.8, Orlando (8) 107.2
Defense Eff.: Los Angeles (5) 101.9, Orlando (1) 98.9
Pace: Los Angeles (6) 96.9, Orlando (12) 94.6

I'm having a hard time analyzing this series, which I think probably means it will be close and go 6 or 7 games, but here are some things that I could see as keys to this series:

Lakers Defense: The one thing I do know is that it will be interesting to see how the Lakers guard the Magic when it comes to Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis. I personally think they should start Lamar Odom and let him play defense on Rashard Lewis and move Gasol over to the center position to match up with Dwight Howard. However, I wouldn't be surprised if the Lakers leave Bynum on Howard and take their chances with Gasol on Lewis. It probably depends how effective Gasol would be on Howard, because if he can't stop Howard then the Lakers will be giving up dunks and putbacks which are high percentage shots. It may makes more sense to lock down Howard and make the Magic hit more shots that are a lower percentage, however, since the Magic actually prefer to shoot from the outside that might not be the best idea.

Orlando's Defense: The Magic were the best defense team in the NBA during the regular season and they have two pretty decent options to throw at Kobe Bryant. Both Mickael Pietrus and Courtney Lee are going to get their chances to slow down Kobe and I wouldn't even be surprised to see Turkoglu get some time on him too for better or worse. I expect Orlando's D to be solid and Trevor Ariza, Lamar Odom, Derek Fisher, and the Lakers bench players could struggle to score.

Dwight Howard: Maybe I'm crazy, but I actually have liked what I've seen from Dwight enough in these playoffs to think he might just be able to dominate in this series against the Lakers. He's flat out better than Andrew Bynum, but still Bynum's length might have a chance to bother Howard some. If Howard goes against Gasol, I think he'll destroy him pretty much. The Lakers might even have to end up double-teaming Howard and then this series will come down to whether Lewis, Turkoglu, Alston, Pietrus, and company are hitting their shots. If Howard struggles, then the Magic could be in for a long series.

Kobe Bryant: Will Kobe try to completely take over the series or will he get his teammates involved? When it's just Kobe against the world, the role players seem to go cold and get out of the flow of the game. The role players need Kobe to be successful on offense more than he needs them. It will be interesting to see how the Magic try and defend Kobe. I personally think they will play him straight up for the most part and try to force him to shoot from the outside the same way they did with Lebron.

Pau Gasol: If Gasol has Rashard Lewis guarding him then he needs to take him in the post and abuse him. If he's playing center, then he'll be matched up against Howard and won't have as much of an advantage, but he's going to have to play aggressively in this series for the Lakers to win.

Lamar Odom: Odom is the ultimate x-factor in this series. On defense, he will most likely be matched up with Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu and his defense against both will be critical. If he can take either one of them out of the game offensively, then there's no way I see the Magic winning. On offense and on the boards, when he plays well the Lakers are tough to beat, so if Odom can average a double-double or close to it in the series then I think the Lakers will be champs.

Jameer Nelson: It sounds like he's going to play in the NBA Finals and while I don't think he will be able to come back and play at the level he was during the regular season; it certainly isn't going to hurt to have a player of his caliber as a weapon off the bench, especially when he can probably destroy Derek Fisher even with a shoulder that's not 100%. However, if anyone is tough enough to go out there and play like he never missed a beat I wouldn't be the one to be betting against Jameer Nelson.

Prediction: In the end, I like the Lakers in 7, but I would not be shocked to see the Magic pull this thing out, especially if Jameer Nelson gives them anything close to what he was doing earlier in the season.

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