2010 NCAA Tournament: Historical Analysis of Final 4 Teams (Offensive & Defensive Efficiency Ratings)

Once again, I will be writing a series of posts analyzing the NCAA tournament based on Ken Pomeroy's Efficiency Ratings. I am going to be updating the historical posts with the 2009 NCAA Tournament data and also analyzing the 2010 NCAA Tournament.

Here's the schedule for the analysis I will be doing and links as I post each Part:

Part I: Historical Analysis of Final 4 Teams (Offensive & Defensive Efficiency Ratings)
Part II: Historical Analysis of Top Seeds (1 through 4)
Part III: Historical Analysis of Upsets (5 vs 12 & 6 vs 11)
Part IV: 2010 NCAA Tournament Game by Game Analysis & Possible Upsets

In this post, I am going to do a Historical Analysis of the Final 4 teams since 2004, using Overall Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, and Defensive Efficiency ratings. I will also give a list of the top teams this year in each of these categories.

Part I: Historical Analysis of Final 4 Teams (Offensive & Defensive Efficiency Ratings)

Here are the overall efficiency ranks of the Final 4 teams from the last 6 seasons, with the champion in italics:

2009: North Carolina(2), UConn(3), Michigan State(13), Villanova(19)
2008: Kansas(1), Memphis(2), UCLA(3), North Carolina(4)
2007: Florida(2), Ohio St(4), Georgetown(5), and UCLA(6)
2006: Florida(1), UCLA(3), LSU(10), George Mason(23)
2005: North Carolina(1), Illinois(2), Louisville(4), Michigan St(7)
2004: UConn(2), Duke(1), Oklahoma St(3), Georgia Tech(7)

Analysis: The trend from 2004-2008 was for teams ranked in the overall Top 10 in efficiency to make the Final Four. The one exception was George Mason, which was a once in a lifetime run and their final ranking of 23 wasn't all that bad anyway. However, last season both Michigan State(13) & Villanova(19) started the NCAA Tournament ranked outside the Top 10 and both made the Final 4. The reason for this was the Top 10 teams were the weakest group since 2006. This year the Top 10 teams are a little stronger than last year, but still weak overall, so I suspect that at least one team ranked outside the Top 10 going into the NCAA Tournament will make the Final 4. Also, the # 1 or # 2 ranked team has won the championship in each of the last 5 years. That's good news for Kansas and Duke fans.

Here are the offensive efficiency ranks of the Final 4 teams from the last 5 seasons, with the champion in italics:

2009: North Carolina(1), UConn(20), Michigan State(33), Villanova(25)
2008: Kansas(2), Memphis(4), UCLA(7), North Carolina(1)
2007: Florida(1), Ohio St(4), Georgetown(2), and UCLA(23)
2006: Florida(2), UCLA(28), LSU(50), George Mason(49)
2005: North Carolina(1), Illinois(3), Louisville(7), Michigan St(6)
2004: UConn(4), Duke(2), Oklahoma St(5), Georgia Tech(25)

Analysis: Out of the past 24 Final 4 teams we can see the following trends:

- 15 out of the 24 teams ranked in the Top 10 in Offensive Efficiency

- 6 out of 6 Champions were ranked in the Top 5 in Offensive Efficiency

- 20 out of the 24 teams were ranked in the Top 25 in Offensive Efficiency, with the only outliers all coming in the weaker 2009 & 2006 seasons

- 24 out of 24 teams were ranked in the Top 50 in Offensive Efficiency.

From these trends, you can see that any team ranked in Top 10 in offensive efficiency has a great chance to make the Final 4. However, last season three of the teams in the Final 4 were Top 20 or worse, so this trend may not be as reliable in a weaker season like this year.

To win the National Championship, it looks like a Top 5 offense is necessary regardless of how strong the Overall Efficiency rankings are. In fact, the # 1 or # most efficient offensive team has won the championship the past 5 season. This is good news for Duke who has the # 1 ranked offense and also Kansas who checks in at # 2.

If a team is outside the Top 25 in offensive efficiency than they are far less likely to make the Final 4. However, you may want to look at some of the more talented teams that are ranked between 20-50 in offensive efficiency as possible Final 4 teams that could improve offensively throughout the tournament.

Here are the defensive efficiency ranks of the Final 4 teams from the last 5 seasons, with the champion in italics:

2009: North Carolina(35), UConn(3), Michigan State(10), Villanova(25)
2008: Kansas(1), Memphis(4), UCLA(3), North Carolina(19)
2007: Florida(12), Ohio St(15), Georgetown(20), and UCLA(2)
2006: Florida(5), UCLA(3), LSU(4), George Mason(18)
2005: North Carolina(5), Illinois(11), Louisville(14), Michigan St(25)
2004: UConn(5), Duke(4), Oklahoma St(12), Georgia Tech(3)

Analysis: Out of the past 24 Final 4 teams we can see the following trends:

- 13 out of the 24 teams ranked in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency

- 21 out of the 24 teams ranked in the Top 20 in defensive efficiency

- 23 out of the 24 teams ranked in the Top 25 in defensive efficiency

Defense wins championships? Apparently it does, but only to an extent. It helps to be ranked in the Top 20 in Defensive Efficiency if you want to make the Final 4, but once you get there, since most teams are pretty equal on defense, the offense is what separates who wins and who goes home. This was never more true than last season, where North Carolina's elite offense made up for what has been the worst defensive team of any champion in the past 6 seasons. In fact, UNC was the worst defensive team of any of the past 24 Final 4 teams. Still a Top 25 defense is a strong indicator of a Final 4 quality team.

Here are the Offensive Effective FG% ranks of the Final 4 teams from the last 5 seasons, with the champion in italics:

2009: North Carolina(45), UConn(81), Michigan State(139), Villanova(100)
2008: Kansas(5), Memphis(53), UCLA(75), North Carolina(49)
2007: Florida(1), Ohio St(38), Georgetown(4), and UCLA(41)
2006: Florida(2), UCLA(36), LSU(131), George Mason(24)
2005: North Carolina(4), Illinois(5), Louisville(12), Michigan St(18)
2004: UConn(25), Duke(24), Oklahoma St(8), Georgia Tech(40)

Analysis: 4 out of the last 6 champions were ranked in the Top 5 in offensive effective FG%. UConn was ranked 25th, but was # 1 in defensive effective FG%. UNC was ranked 45th and was not even close to being # 1 on defense. This stat is all over the place as far as predicting the Final 4. In fact, last season saw 4 teams with some of the worst effective FG% rankings to make the Final 4 in the past 6 years.

I would not use this stat too much when picking my Final 4, although you probably could limit it to teams within the Top 100. That would eliminate: Purdue(111), West Virginia(115), Pitt(151), Texas A&M(157), UConn(167), Temple(193), & Wake Forest(208).

However, be careful with West Virginia who is the best offensive rebounding team in the country, which makes up for their low effective FG%.

Here are the Defensive Effective FG% ranks of the Final 4 teams from the last 5 seasons, with the champion in italics:

2009: North Carolina(62), UConn(2), Michigan State(85), Villanova(89)
2008: Kansas(9), Memphis(6), UCLA(37), North Carolina(90)
2007: Florida(18), Ohio St(42), Georgetown(10), and UCLA(76)
2006: Florida(16), UCLA(37), LSU(32), George Mason(10)
2005: North Carolina(36), Illinois(63), Louisville(12), Michigan St(136)
2004: UConn(1), Duke(13), Oklahoma St(37), Georgia Tech(5)

Analysis: Much like Offensive Effective FG%, this stat is all over the place. However, 23 of the past 24 Final 4 teams were in the Top 100 in this stat. So I would say you could eliminate any teams outside the Top 100. This season that includes these top teams: Vanderbilt(101), West Virginia(134), Cal(138), Louisville(150), New Mexico(158), & Marquette(169)

2010 NCAA Tournament Analysis (Efficiency Ratings)

Top 10 teams in Offensive Efficiency:

1 Duke 121.5
2 Kansas 121.4
3 California 121.0
4 Notre Dame 119.8
5 Baylor 119.6
6 Maryland 119.1
7 Ohio State 119.0
8 Villanova 118.7
9 Syracuse 117.9
10 Georgetown 117.6


Other Notables(Rank): West Virginia(11), BYU(12), Wisconsin(13), Xavier(15), Kansas State(16), Kentucky(18), New Mexico(21)

Top 10 teams in Defensive Efficiency

1 Florida St. 83.9
2 Southern California 84.7
3 Temple 85.7
4 Duke 85.9
5 Kansas 86.1
6 Purdue 86.4
7 Wisconsin 87.3
8 Tennessee 87.3
9 Clemson 87.7
10 Kentucky 87.7

Other Notables(Rank): Kansas State(19), Syracuse(20), BYU(21), Ohio State(22), West Virginia(24), Georgetown(33), Maryland(40), Villanova(62)

Finally, the Top 20 teams Overall Efficiency:

1 Duke .982
2 Kansas .981
3 Wisconsin .965
4 Ohio St. .962
5 Syracuse .962
6 Kentucky .960
7 Brigham Young .957
8 West Virginia .955
9 Kansas St. .955
10 Maryland .953
11 Georgetown .951
12 Baylor .949
13 Purdue .940
14 California .938
15 Villanova .937
16 Clemson .934
17 Texas .933
18 Temple .931
19 Florida St. .931
20 Utah State .930

Other Notables(Rank): Xavier(22), Michigan State(24), Butler(26), Pitt(30), New Mexico(47)

Final Analysis:

By the trends, Final 4 teams will most likely look like this: Overall Efficiency in Top 15, Offensive Efficiency in Top 50, Defensive Efficiency in Top 25.

Teams that fit all 3 trends: Duke, Kansas, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Syracuse, Kentucky, BYU, West Virginia, Kansas State, Purdue,

Teams that fit 2 of the 3 trends: Maryland, Georgetown, Baylor, California, Villanova

By the trends, the National Champion will most likely look like this: Offensive Efficiency in Top 10, Defensive Efficiency in Top 15, Off. Effective FG% in Top 45, Def. Effective FG% in Top 65

Teams that fit all 4 trends: Kansas

Teams that fit 3 of the 4 trends: Duke, Baylor, Syracuse, Kentucky, UTEP

Teams that fit 2 of the 4 trends: Maryland, Ohio State, Villanova, Georgetown, Temple, Purdue, Florida State, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Clemson, Missouri, Northern Iowa

Note: I don't see Baylor or UTEP winning the championship, so you can exclude them despite them hitting on 3 trends. The teams that only fit 2 trends are hit or miss. Ohio State, Georgetown, and Villanova have a small chance to win it all, but your best bets are Kansas, Kentucky, Duke, & Syracuse. No surprise they are all the # 1 seeds.

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