2011 NCAA Tournament: Elite 8, Final 4, & National Championship Predictions & Possible Upsets

Last year, I did a series of posts analyzing the NCAA tournament based on Ken Pomeroy's Efficiency Ratings. I updated those posts with the 2009 info and this is the last part of my analysis for the 2010 NCAA Tournament.

Here's the schedule for the analysis I will be doing and links as I post each Part:

Part I: Historical Analysis of Final 4 Teams (Offensive & Defensive Efficiency Ratings)
Part II: Historical Analysis of Top Seeds (1 through 4)
Part III: Historical Analysis of Upsets (5 vs 12 & 6 vs 11)
Part IV: Elite 8, Final 4, & National Championship Predictions & Possible Upsets

In this post, I will give my predictions for the Elite 8, Final 4, and National Championship Game, plus possible upsets.


Possible Upsets:

High Probability: Utah State (12) over Kansas State (5), Richmond (12) over Vanderbilt (5), Marquette (11) over Xavier (6), Missouri (11) over Cincinnati (6), Gonzaga (11) over St. John's (6)

Medium Probability: Belmont (13) over Wisconsin (4), Clemson (12) over West Virginia (5),

Low Probability: Oakland (13) over Texas (4), Memphis (12) over Arizona (5), St. Peter's (14) over Purdue (3)


Elite 8 Predictions:

Efficiency Predictions:
Ohio State (1) vs Syracuse (11)
Duke (2) vs San Diego State (7)
Kansas (3) vs Purdue (8)
Pitt (5) vs BYU (14)

My Predictions:
Ohio State (1) vs Washington (15)
Texas (4) vs UConn (16)
Kansas (3) vs Purdue (8)
Pitt (5) vs BYU (14)

Final 4 Predictions:

Efficiency Predictions:
Ohio State (1) vs Duke (2)
Kansas (3) vs Pitt (5)

National Championship Game: Ohio State (1) vs Kansas (3)

Winner: Ohio State (1)

My Predictions:
Ohio State (1) vs Texas (4)
Kansas (3) vs Pitt (5)

National Championship Game: Kansas (3) vs Ohio State (1)

Winner: Kansas (3)

Comments: I initially thought I was going to pick Ohio State as my winner, but I feel like their defense is just a little bit suspect and that they can be scored on. I also don't like that they aren't very deep and I think if Sullinger gets in foul trouble at all against a good opponent then it could hurt them big time. I do think the winner will be either Kansas or Ohio State though, with Duke being the only other team that could possibly sneak in and win it, especially if Kyrie Irving comes back at full-speed.

More: March Madness