MLB Postseason - ALCS Preview

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays:

Offensive Ratings:

TBR: 4.78 runs per game/180 HR/.260 AVG/.340 OBP/.422 SLG/.762 OPS/103 OPS+/142 SB

BOS: 5.22 runs per game/173 HR/.280 AVG/.358 OBP/.447 SLG/.815 OPS/108 OPS+/120 SB

Pitching Ratings:

TBR: 4.14 runs per game/3.82 ERA/114 ERA+

BOS: 4.28 runs per game/4.01 ERA/114 ERA+

Defensive Ratings:

TBR: 90 Errors/.985 Fielding %/.708 Defensive Efficiency

BOS: 85 Errors/.986 Fielding %/.698 Defensive Efficiency

ALCS Comments: The Red Sox and Rays are two strikingly similar teams, with almost identical hitting, pitching, and defensive statistics. That leads me to believe that this series is going to be a long series that will be extremely competitive. To top it off, these two teams have some bad blood between each other that has gone back for years now and exploded most recently this year with the Coco Crisp/Jamie Shield brawl. This could turn out to be a classic series.

As I've stated before, no AL team has made the World Series during the Wild Card era with a losing road record, but in actuality it goes back further than that. Since both the Red Sox and Rays have losing road records, this will be the first time since 1987 that the AL will be represented by a team with a losing road record in the World Series. That year the Twins were a horrific 29-52 on the road. So this season definitely is not the norm in the AL, but I was starting to wonder if the poor road records of the Rays and Sox have to do with the fact they play in the strong AL East. So I decided to take a look at the Rays and Red Sox road records against the AL East and then against everyone else.

Here are their road records in the AL East:

TBR: 16-20 ( at BOS: 2-7)
BOS: 15-21 ( at TBR: 1-8)

Here are their road records against everyone else:

TBR: 24-21
BOS: 24-21

So both teams had a winning road record outside of the division and neither one can beat each other on the road. It seems like it would make sense that these teams would struggle on the road in their division because there were 4 teams in the AL East that won 86 games or more, which means there were 4 teams just in the AL East that had a better record than the Dodgers. Chew on that for a moment. So in actuality, the Rays and Red Sox weren't able to finish with winning road records because they had to play 27 road games against 3 other 86+ win teams. However, neither one of these teams could really beat each other on the road, so it still seems like home field is going to be huge in this series. Whoever can steal a game on the road could gain a huge advantage and end up winning the series.

The Rays have home field advantage and have been great at home all season. B.J. Upton and Carlos Pena are both locked in right now and I love how they have been swinging the bats. The Rays are such a versatile team offensively that even a bottom of the lineup hitter like Jason Bartlett can hurt you. I think the Rays are going to put their speed to use in this series too. If Carl Crawford, Upton and crew get on base, I expect them to run regularly, especially in Game 1 against Dice-K who does not hold on base runners very well. Of course I love the Rays pitching as well and the bullpen has been incredible with Grant Balfour and J.P. Howell leading the way. They haven't even had to use their phenom David Price yet, but he could be a key contributor in this series if one of the Rays pitchers has to leave a game early or if their is a game that goes extra innings. That is definitely something to keep an eye on, because I think other than Papelbon, the Rays bullpen is stronger and deeper than the Red Sox.

The Red Sox bring all the experience in the world to the table in this series. I think they also have a balanced offense that can beat you in many different ways. Jason Bay has really been big for them and helped ease the loss of Manny Ramirez. However, he did only hit .233 against the Rays this season. In fact, as a team the Red Sox only hit .253 against the Rays, which is 27 points lower than their batting average for the season. Another thing to look at is that Jon Lester will be starting Game 3, which means if the series goes to a Game 7 he will most likely be pitching that game. I'm sure the Red Sox will feel confident in a Game 7 with Jon Lester on the mound. The key to this series for Boston is going to be stealing one of the first two games in Tampa. If the Red Sox are able to do that, then they put themselves in great position to win this series. Game 1 could be a tough one to win if Dice-K is walking batters, because I'm sure the Rays will run on him if he puts them on. Dice-K's control has been shakey all season and the Red Sox will need him to keep his walk total down to give themselves the best chance to win the game.

Overall, I think the Red Sox are going to have their hands full with the Rays in this series. The Angels played about as bad as they could against the Red Sox and Boston still struggled to beat them. The Rays, in my mind, are a much better team than the Angels right now. The Rays are better defensively and hit better in the clutch than the Angels. I would argue that they have better starting and relief pitching as well. You could probably make a case that K-Rod is a better closer than what the Rays have, but even he blew a game, and I think the Rays will use their best relievers when needed instead of the traditional closer role. This might surprise some, but I think the Rays will be headed to the World Series.

Put On Notice for Game 1: Dice-K